Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast
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Gisborne District

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2023, the age structure forecasts for Gisborne District indicate a 1.4% decrease in population under working age, a 34.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 1.5% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Gisborne District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Gisborne District - Total persons201320232043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4 3,8808.33,7037.63,8797.5-1
5 to 9 3,9518.43,8958.04,1037.9+152
10 to 14 3,8608.23,9318.14,0227.7+162
15 to 19 3,4507.33,3766.93,5106.7+60
20 to 24 2,8906.12,8665.93,0475.9+157
25 to 29 2,5405.42,6665.52,7815.3+241
30 to 34 2,5155.42,8135.82,9385.6+423
35 to 39 2,6805.72,8285.83,0825.9+402
40 to 44 3,0606.52,6785.52,9755.7-85
45 to 49 3,0096.42,7255.62,8945.6-115
50 to 54 3,2206.92,8535.92,7845.3-436
55 to 59 2,9716.32,8005.82,7055.2-266
60 to 64 2,6505.62,9436.12,6595.1+9
65 to 69 2,1104.52,6955.52,6125.0+502
70 to 74 1,5803.42,2624.72,5224.8+942
75 to 79 1,1102.41,6613.42,2344.3+1,124
80 to 84 8601.81,0602.21,8003.5+940
85 and over6641.48491.71,5142.9+851
Total persons47,000100.048,602100.052,063100.0+5,063

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2017.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 1,514 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 1,800 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 2,234 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 2,522 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 2,612 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 2,659 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 2,705 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 2,784 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 2,894 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 2,975 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 3,082 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 2,938 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 2,781 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 3,047 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 3,510 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 4,022 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 4,103 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 3,879 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2023: 849 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2023: 1,060 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2023: 1,661 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2023: 2,262 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2023: 2,695 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2023: 2,943 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2023: 2,800 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2023: 2,853 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2023: 2,725 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2023: 2,678 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2023: 2,828 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2023: 2,813 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2023: 2,666 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2023: 2,866 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2023: 3,376 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2023: 3,931 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2023: 3,895 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2023: 3,703 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 664 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 860 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 1,110 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 1,580 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 2,110 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 2,650 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 2,971 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 3,220 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 3,009 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 3,060 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 2,680 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 2,515 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 2,540 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 2,890 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 3,450 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 3,860 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 3,951 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 3,880
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2017.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2023 to 2043: 665 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2023 to 2043: 740 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2023 to 2043: 572 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2023 to 2043: 260 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2023 to 2043: -83 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2023 to 2043: -284 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2023 to 2043: -95 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2023 to 2043: -69 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2023 to 2043: 170 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2023 to 2043: 297 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2023 to 2043: 254 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2023 to 2043: 125 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2023 to 2043: 115 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2023 to 2043: 181 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2023 to 2043: 135 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2023 to 2043: 91 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2023 to 2043: 208 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2023 to 2043: 176 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2023: 186 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2023: 200 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2023: 551 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2023: 682 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2023: 585 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2023: 293 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2023: -171 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2023: -367 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2023: -285 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2023: -382 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2023: 148 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2023: 298 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2023: 125 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2023: -24 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2023: -74 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2023: 71 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2023: -56 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2023: -177
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2017.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Gisborne District was ages 5 to 9 , which accounted for 8.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2023 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74 , which is expected to increase by 682 and account for 4.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2023 is 10 to 14 years, with a total of 3,931 persons.

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