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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Gisborne District

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2023, the age structure forecasts for Gisborne District indicate a 1.4% decrease in population under working age, a 34.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 1.5% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Gisborne District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Gisborne District - Total persons201320232043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 43,8808.33,7037.63,8797.5-1
5 to 93,9518.43,8958.04,1037.9+152
10 to 143,8608.23,9318.14,0227.7+162
15 to 193,4507.33,3766.93,5106.7+60
20 to 242,8906.12,8665.93,0475.9+157
25 to 292,5405.42,6665.52,7815.3+241
30 to 342,5155.42,8135.82,9385.6+423
35 to 392,6805.72,8285.83,0825.9+402
40 to 443,0606.52,6785.52,9755.7-85
45 to 493,0096.42,7255.62,8945.6-115
50 to 543,2206.92,8535.92,7845.3-436
55 to 592,9716.32,8005.82,7055.2-266
60 to 642,6505.62,9436.12,6595.1+9
65 to 692,1104.52,6955.52,6125.0+502
70 to 741,5803.42,2624.72,5224.8+942
75 to 791,1102.41,6613.42,2344.3+1,124
80 to 848601.81,0602.21,8003.5+940
85 and over6641.48491.71,5142.9+851
Total persons47,000100.048,602100.052,063100.0+5,063
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2017.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Gisborne District was ages 5 to 9, which accounted for 8.4% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2023 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 682 and account for 4.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2023 is 10 to 14 years, with a total of 3,931 persons.

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