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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Gisborne Central

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2023, the age structure forecasts for Gisborne Central indicate a 0.8% increase in males under working age, a 32.5% increase in males of retirement age, and a 1.3% increase in males of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Gisborne Central is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Gisborne Central - Total males201320232043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41207.31367.81557.5+35
5 to 91257.51257.21426.9+17
10 to 141307.81176.71386.7+9
15 to 191006.11257.11396.7+38
20 to 241458.81438.21587.7+13
25 to 291096.61166.61436.9+34
30 to 341036.21156.61316.4+28
35 to 391106.61056.01306.3+21
40 to 441086.5975.51175.7+9
45 to 49895.3925.31045.0+15
50 to 541006.0985.61045.0+4
55 to 591066.4874.9954.6-10
60 to 64804.8864.9904.4+10
65 to 69804.8975.6974.7+17
70 to 74603.6844.81014.9+41
75 to 79392.4724.1924.5+53
80 to 84382.3382.2673.3+29
85 and over140.9150.8562.7+42
Total persons1,656100.01,749100.02,061100.0+405
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2017.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for males in Gisborne Central was ages 20 to 24, which accounted for 8.8% of the total males.

The largest increase in males between 2013 and 2023 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 33 and account for 4.1% of the total males.

The largest male 5 year age group in 2023 is 20 to 24 years, with a total of 143 males.

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