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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Tokomaru Bay - Ruatoria - East Cape

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2023, the age structure forecasts for Tokomaru Bay - Ruatoria - East Cape indicate a 13.8% decrease in females under working age, a 38.7% increase in females of retirement age, and a 7.3% decrease in females of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Tokomaru Bay - Ruatoria - East Cape is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Tokomaru Bay - Ruatoria - East Cape - Total females201320232043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41618.51397.71387.7-23
5 to 91819.61598.81629.1-19
10 to 1419310.21639.01568.8-37
15 to 191306.91226.71146.4-17
20 to 24904.8945.2814.5-10
25 to 29965.1925.1905.1-6
30 to 341045.51015.51035.8-1
35 to 39985.2965.3985.50
40 to 441196.3915.0915.1-28
45 to 491367.2995.5935.2-43
50 to 541266.71176.4945.3-32
55 to 591286.81266.9985.5-31
60 to 641115.91176.4995.6-13
65 to 69794.21096.0955.4+16
70 to 74482.5874.8925.2+44
75 to 79402.1532.9774.3+37
80 to 84150.8261.4543.0+39
85 and over351.8261.4442.5+9
Total persons1,891100.01,817100.01,778100.0-113
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2017.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for females in Tokomaru Bay - Ruatoria - East Cape was ages 10 to 14, which accounted for 10.2% of the total females.

The largest increase in females between 2013 and 2023 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 39 and account for 4.8% of the total females.

The largest female 5 year age group in 2023 is 10 to 14 years, with a total of 163 females.

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