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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Wharekaka - Tolaga Bay

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2023, the age structure forecasts for Wharekaka - Tolaga Bay indicate a 5.6% decrease in population under working age, a 65.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 8.2% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Wharekaka - Tolaga Bay is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Wharekaka - Tolaga Bay - Total persons201320232043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)2067.51856.71976.7-10
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)32111.631011.132611.1+4
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)2689.72448.72508.5-18
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)1696.11836.61856.3+16
Young workforce (25 to 34)2559.22629.42819.6+26
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)54219.652518.857119.5+29
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)46116.734612.435312.0-109
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)33612.239314.131710.8-20
Seniors (70 to 84)1555.629310.535912.3+204
Elderly aged (85 and over)471.7451.6903.1+43
Total persons2,762100.02,787100.02,928100.0+166
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2017.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Wharekaka - Tolaga Bay was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 19.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2023 is forecast to be in ages Seniors (70 to 84), which is expected to increase by 138 and account for 10.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2023 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 525 persons.

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