svg rectangle color
Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2023, the age structure forecasts for Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka indicate a 14.4% decrease in females under working age, a 63.6% increase in females of retirement age, and a 14.7% decrease in females of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka - Total females201320232043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)878.6687.3607.2-27
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)11311.210110.99111.0-21
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)929.2798.6688.2-24
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)767.6646.9556.6-21
Young workforce (25 to 34)11411.39810.58610.4-27
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)22622.518419.816720.0-60
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)15815.713114.110312.4-55
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)828.211512.4829.80
Seniors (70 to 84)575.7838.910612.8+49
Elderly aged (85 and over)00.050.5141.6+14
Total persons1,005100.0928100.0832100.0-173
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2017.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for females in Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 22.5% of the total females.

The largest increase in females between 2013 and 2023 is forecast to be in ages Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69), which is expected to increase by 33 and account for 12.4% of the total females.

The largest female 5 year age group in 2023 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 184 females.

DISCLAIMER: While all due care has been taken to ensure that the content of this website is accurate and current, there may be errors or omissions in it and no legal responsibility is accepted for the information and opinions in this website.

Please view our Privacy Policy, Terms of use and Legal notices.

ABS Data and the copyright in the ABS Data remains the property of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The copyright in the way .id has modified, transformed or reconfigured the ABS Data as published on this website remains the property of .id. ABS Data can be accessed from the Australian Bureau of Statistics at ABS data can be used under license - terms published on ABS website. if you have any queries or wish to distribute any ABS data.