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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast


Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2023, the age structure forecasts for Whataupoko indicate a 7.3% decrease in population under working age, a 37.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 5.9% decrease in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Whataupoko is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Whataupoko - Total persons201320232043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42626.72566.62716.6+10
5 to 93208.32747.02997.2-22
10 to 142707.02606.72736.6+3
15 to 192616.72336.02235.4-39
20 to 242015.21714.41734.2-28
25 to 291804.61734.41764.3-4
30 to 341604.11884.82014.9+40
35 to 392295.92145.52375.7+8
40 to 442887.42185.62445.9-43
45 to 492696.92576.62445.9-25
50 to 543108.02727.02415.9-68
55 to 592717.02626.72486.0-23
60 to 642616.72987.72626.4+1
65 to 692305.92727.02816.8+51
70 to 741604.12386.12716.6+111
75 to 791092.81764.52245.4+115
80 to 84792.0882.31623.9+83
85 and over180.5441.1912.2+73
Total persons3,878100.03,895100.04,120100.0+242
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2017.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Whataupoko was ages 5 to 9, which accounted for 8.3% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2023 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 78 and account for 6.1% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2023 is 60 to 64 years, with a total of 298 persons.

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