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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Gisborne District

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2023, the age structure forecasts for Gisborne District indicate a 0.5% decrease in males under working age, a 38.3% increase in males of retirement age, and a 2.2% decrease in males of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Gisborne District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Gisborne District - Total males201320232043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,9598.61,9378.22,0318.0+72
5 to 92,0559.02,0438.62,1548.5+99
10 to 142,0408.92,0428.62,1188.4+78
15 to 191,7707.71,7597.41,8387.3+68
20 to 241,4456.31,4996.31,6056.3+160
25 to 291,1605.11,2905.41,3595.4+199
30 to 341,1314.91,3185.61,3815.5+250
35 to 391,2705.51,3025.51,4415.7+171
40 to 441,4206.21,2095.11,3645.4-56
45 to 491,4106.21,2455.31,3195.2-91
50 to 541,5306.71,3155.51,2815.1-249
55 to 591,4606.41,3075.51,2454.9-216
60 to 641,3305.81,3815.81,2264.8-104
65 to 691,0304.51,3045.51,2254.8+194
70 to 747403.21,1024.71,1714.6+431
75 to 795002.27863.31,0444.1+544
80 to 843811.74782.08223.2+442
85 and over2761.23771.67002.8+425
Total persons22,907100.023,694100.025,324100.0+2,417
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2017.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for males in Gisborne District was ages 5 to 9, which accounted for 9.0% of the total males.

The largest increase in males between 2013 and 2023 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 362 and account for 4.7% of the total males.

The largest male 5 year age group in 2023 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 2,043 males.

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