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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Gisborne District

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2023, the age structure forecasts for Gisborne District indicate a 2.3% decrease in females under working age, a 31.9% increase in females of retirement age, and a 0.9% decrease in females of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Gisborne District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Gisborne District - Total females201320232043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41,9208.01,7667.11,8476.9-73
5 to 91,8957.91,8527.41,9497.3+53
10 to 141,8207.61,8897.61,9047.1+84
15 to 191,6807.01,6166.51,6726.3-8
20 to 241,4456.01,3675.51,4425.4-3
25 to 291,3805.71,3755.51,4225.3+41
30 to 341,3855.71,4956.01,5575.8+173
35 to 391,4105.91,5266.11,6416.1+232
40 to 441,6406.81,4695.91,6126.0-28
45 to 491,6006.61,4805.91,5765.9-24
50 to 541,6907.01,5386.21,5025.6-188
55 to 591,5106.31,4936.01,4605.5-50
60 to 641,3205.51,5626.31,4335.4+113
65 to 691,0804.51,3915.61,3885.2+308
70 to 748403.51,1604.71,3515.1+511
75 to 796102.58763.51,1904.5+580
80 to 844802.05822.39783.7+499
85 and over3881.64721.98143.0+426
Total persons24,093100.024,909100.026,739100.0+2,646
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2017.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for females in Gisborne District was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 8.0% of the total females.

The largest increase in females between 2013 and 2023 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 320 and account for 4.7% of the total females.

The largest female 5 year age group in 2023 is 10 to 14 years, with a total of 1,889 females.

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