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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Wainui - Okitu

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2023, the age structure forecasts for Wainui - Okitu indicate a 11.6% increase in population under working age, a 118.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 6.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Wainui - Okitu is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Wainui - Okitu - Total persons201320232043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)1166.41416.61606.4+45
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)18210.11908.92138.6+32
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)1458.11466.81526.1+7
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)945.21215.71365.5+43
Young workforce (25 to 34)24013.325011.727811.2+38
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)39822.047222.152020.9+122
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)32618.128813.533213.3+7
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)20511.431814.931312.6+108
Seniors (70 to 84)854.71969.232813.2+243
Elderly aged (85 and over)130.7160.7572.3+44
Total persons1,804100.02,137100.02,490100.0+687
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2017.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Wainui - Okitu was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 22.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2023 is forecast to be in ages Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69), which is expected to increase by 113 and account for 14.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2023 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 472 persons.

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