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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka

Population, households and dwellings

The number of dwellings in Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka is forecast to fall from 850 in 2013 to 730 in 2043, with the average household size falling from 2.79 to 2.61 by 2043.

This summary shows the results of the forecasts for population, households and dwellings in Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka. The period 2013 to 2023, as the short to medium term, is likely to be the most accurate and useful forecast information for immediate planning purposes.

It is important to look at the relationship between population and average household size. If the average household size is falling, then there will need to be growth in the number of households (and dwellings for them to live in) to maintain or grow the population.

Forecast population, households and dwellings
Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te KarakaForecast year
Summary2013201820232028203320382043
Population2,1001,9931,9031,8361,7741,7271,688
Change in population (5yrs)---107-90-67-62-47-39
Average annual change---1.04%-0.92%-0.72%-0.68%-0.53%-0.46%
Households748730711695677659643
Average household size2.792.712.662.622.602.602.61
Population in non private dwellings13131313131313
Dwellings850830810790770750730
Dwelling occupancy rate88.0087.9587.7887.9787.9287.8788.08
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2017.

Key findings

In 2013, the total population of Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka was estimated to be 2,100 people. It is expected to decrease by over 264 people to 1,836 by 2023, at an average annual growth rate of -1.33%. This is based on a loss of over 53 households during the period, with the average number of persons per household falling from 2.79 to 2.62 by 2023.

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