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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Tiniroto - Patutahi - Manutuke

Population, households and dwellings

The number of dwellings in Tiniroto - Patutahi - Manutuke is forecast to grow from 1,196 in 2013 to 1,226 in 2043, with the average household size falling from 2.74 to 2.57 by 2043.

This summary shows the results of the forecasts for population, households and dwellings in Tiniroto - Patutahi - Manutuke. The period 2013 to 2023, as the short to medium term, is likely to be the most accurate and useful forecast information for immediate planning purposes.

It is important to look at the relationship between population and average household size. If the average household size is falling, then there will need to be growth in the number of households (and dwellings for them to live in) to maintain or grow the population.

Forecast population, households and dwellings
Tiniroto - Patutahi - ManutukeForecast year
Summary2013201820232028203320382043
Population3,0722,9802,9422,9262,9232,9392,957
Change in population (5yrs)---92-38-16-31618
Average annual change---0.61%-0.25%-0.11%-0.02%0.11%0.12%
Households1,1151,1201,1251,1291,1321,1371,144
Average household size2.742.652.602.582.572.572.57
Population in non private dwellings17171717171717
Dwellings1,1961,2011,2061,2111,2161,2211,226
Dwelling occupancy rate93.2393.2693.2893.2393.0993.1293.31
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2017.

Key findings

In 2013, the total population of Tiniroto - Patutahi - Manutuke was estimated to be 3,072 people. It is expected to decrease by over 146 people to 2,926 by 2023, at an average annual growth rate of -0.49%. This is based on an increase of over 14 households during the period, with the average number of persons per household falling from 2.74 to 2.58 by 2023.

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