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Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast

Tokomaru Bay - Ruatoria - East Cape

Population, households and dwellings

The number of dwellings in Tokomaru Bay - Ruatoria - East Cape is forecast to fall from 1,723 in 2013 to 1,663 in 2043, with the average household size falling from 2.80 to 2.65 by 2043.

This summary shows the results of the forecasts for population, households and dwellings in Tokomaru Bay - Ruatoria - East Cape. The period 2013 to 2023, as the short to medium term, is likely to be the most accurate and useful forecast information for immediate planning purposes.

It is important to look at the relationship between population and average household size. If the average household size is falling, then there will need to be growth in the number of households (and dwellings for them to live in) to maintain or grow the population.

Forecast population, households and dwellings
Tokomaru Bay - Ruatoria - East CapeForecast year
Summary2013201820232028203320382043
Population3,8873,7793,6773,6243,5823,5673,555
Change in population (5yrs)---108-102-53-42-16-12
Average annual change---0.56%-0.55%-0.29%-0.23%-0.09%-0.07%
Households1,3821,3741,3661,3581,3491,3431,333
Average household size2.802.742.682.652.642.642.65
Population in non private dwellings19191919191919
Dwellings1,7231,7131,7031,6931,6831,6731,663
Dwelling occupancy rate80.2180.2180.2180.2180.1580.2780.16
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), June 2017.

Key findings

In 2013, the total population of Tokomaru Bay - Ruatoria - East Cape was estimated to be 3,887 people. It is expected to decrease by over 263 people to 3,624 by 2023, at an average annual growth rate of -0.70%. This is based on a loss of over 24 households during the period, with the average number of persons per household falling from 2.80 to 2.65 by 2023.

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