Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Gisborne District will increase by an average of 85 dwellings per annum to 20,615 in 2043.
The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).
Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.
.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Gisborne District. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.
|Forecast residential development, 2013 to 2043|
|Gisborne District||Change in dwellings between 2013 and 2043|
|Gisborne Airport - Awapuni||+58||+5.6||100||1034||1048||1092|
|Makaraka - Matokitoki||+250||+40.2||140||623||689||873|
|Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka||-120||-14.1||180||850||818||730|
|Tiniroto - Patutahi - Manutuke||+30||+2.5||200||1196||1204||1226|
|Tokomaru Bay - Ruatoria - East Cape||-60||-3.5||210||1723||1707||1663|
|Wainui - Okitu||+338||+46.0||220||735||862||1073|
|Wharekaka - Tolaga Bay||+129||+11.4||230||1127||1168||1256|
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (opens a new window), the population experts, March 2017.