Gisborne DistrictPopulation forecast
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Gisborne District

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Gisborne District will increase by an average of 85 dwellings per annum to 20,615 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Gisborne District. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

Forecast residential development, 2013 to 2043
Gisborne DistrictChange in dwellings between 2013 and 2043
Areanumber%
Gisborne District+2,558+14.2
Gisborne Airport - Awapuni+58+5.6
Gisborne Central+347+23.3
Kaiti North+82+5.3
Kaiti South+184+18.1
Makaraka - Matokitoki+250+40.2
Mangapapa+158+9.4
Riverdale+796+88.6
Tamarau+78+10.4
Tarndale - Rakauroa - Te Karaka-120-14.1
Te Hapara+129+7.1
Tiniroto - Patutahi - Manutuke+30+2.5
Tokomaru Bay - Ruatoria - East Cape-60-3.5
Wainui - Okitu+338+46.0
Wharekaka - Tolaga Bay+129+11.4
Whataupoko+159+10.1

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2017.

Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 20,615 2042 Total dwellings: 20,532 2041 Total dwellings: 20,449 2040 Total dwellings: 20,366 2039 Total dwellings: 20,283 2038 Total dwellings: 20,198 2037 Total dwellings: 20,113 2036 Total dwellings: 20,028 2035 Total dwellings: 19,941 2034 Total dwellings: 19,852 2033 Total dwellings: 19,762 2032 Total dwellings: 19,672 2031 Total dwellings: 19,582 2030 Total dwellings: 19,492 2029 Total dwellings: 19,402 2028 Total dwellings: 19,312 2027 Total dwellings: 19,222 2026 Total dwellings: 19,132 2025 Total dwellings: 19,042 2024 Total dwellings: 18,952 2023 Total dwellings: 18,862 2022 Total dwellings: 18,772 2021 Total dwellings: 18,682 2020 Total dwellings: 18,592 2019 Total dwellings: 18,504 2018 Total dwellings: 18,418 2017 Total dwellings: 18,334 2016 Total dwellings: 18,255 2015 Total dwellings: 18,184 2014 Total dwellings: 18,107 2043 Total dwellings: 20,615 2042 Total dwellings: 20,532 2041 Total dwellings: 20,449 2040 Total dwellings: 20,366 2039 Total dwellings: 20,283 2038 Total dwellings: 20,198 2037 Total dwellings: 20,113 2036 Total dwellings: 20,028 2035 Total dwellings: 19,941 2034 Total dwellings: 19,852 2033 Total dwellings: 19,762 2032 Total dwellings: 19,672 2031 Total dwellings: 19,582 2030 Total dwellings: 19,492 2029 Total dwellings: 19,402 2028 Total dwellings: 19,312 2027 Total dwellings: 19,222 2026 Total dwellings: 19,132 2025 Total dwellings: 19,042 2024 Total dwellings: 18,952 2023 Total dwellings: 18,862 2022 Total dwellings: 18,772 2021 Total dwellings: 18,682 2020 Total dwellings: 18,592 2019 Total dwellings: 18,504 2018 Total dwellings: 18,418 2017 Total dwellings: 18,334 2016 Total dwellings: 18,255 2015 Total dwellings: 18,184 2014 Total dwellings: 18,107 2043 Forecast development: 83 2042 Forecast development: 83 2041 Forecast development: 83 2040 Forecast development: 83 2039 Forecast development: 85 2038 Forecast development: 85 2037 Forecast development: 85 2036 Forecast development: 87 2035 Forecast development: 89 2034 Forecast development: 90 2033 Forecast development: 90 2032 Forecast development: 90 2031 Forecast development: 90 2030 Forecast development: 90 2029 Forecast development: 90 2028 Forecast development: 90 2027 Forecast development: 90 2026 Forecast development: 90 2025 Forecast development: 90 2024 Forecast development: 90 2023 Forecast development: 90 2022 Forecast development: 90 2021 Forecast development: 90 2020 Forecast development: 88 2019 Forecast development: 86 2018 Forecast development: 84 2017 Forecast development: 79 2016 Forecast development: 71 2015 Forecast development: 77 2014 Forecast development: 50
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2017.
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