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Kāpiti Coast DistrictPopulation forecast

Otaki Beach and Surroundings

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Otaki Beach and Surroundings indicate a 20.4% increase in population under working age, a 49.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 16.3% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Otaki Beach and Surroundings is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Otaki Beach and Surroundings - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42067.62236.63217.0+115
5 to 91957.22587.63718.1+176
10 to 141836.82226.63207.0+138
15 to 191415.21815.42335.1+92
20 to 241053.91193.51633.5+57
25 to 291194.41464.32034.4+84
30 to 341124.21755.22515.5+139
35 to 391274.72106.23006.5+174
40 to 441876.92156.43096.7+123
45 to 491616.01775.22555.6+95
50 to 541826.81564.62264.9+44
55 to 591786.61765.22305.0+53
60 to 641786.61785.32325.1+54
65 to 691716.31855.52154.7+44
70 to 741545.71775.32144.7+60
75 to 791365.01895.62335.1+97
80 to 84863.21855.52485.4+162
85 and over792.92026.02695.9+190
Total persons2,699100.03,374100.04,594100.0+1,894
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Otaki Beach and Surroundings was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 7.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 85 and over, which is expected to increase by 123 and account for 6.0% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 258 persons.

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