Porirua City
Births and deaths
In 2017, Waitangirua is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.34 (births per woman), this is expected to increase to 2.55 in 2048.
Births are based on the published numbers of births by Area Units from Statistics New Zealand. The fertility rates by age are based on the published numbers of births by age of mother for Area Units by Statistics New Zealand./p>
Birth rates are especially influential in determining the number of children in an area, with most inner urban areas having very low birth rates, compared to outer suburban or rural and regional areas. Birth rates have been changing, with a greater share of women bearing children at older ages or not at all, with overall increases in fertility rates. This can have a large impact on the future population profile.
| Forecast fertility rates (births per woman) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porirua City | Year | Change between 2017 and 2048 | |||||
| Area | 2017 | 2048 | Number | ||||
| Porirua City | 2.27 | 2.33 | +0.06 | 2.2700 | 2016 | 448 | 10 |
| Ascot Park | 2.31 | 2.29 | -0.02 | 2.3100 | 2016 | 448 | 100 |
| Lower Cannons Creek | 2.31 | 2.28 | -0.03 | 2.3100 | 2016 | 448 | 110 |
| Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui | 2.29 | 2.27 | -0.01 | 2.2900 | 2016 | 448 | 120 |
| Paremata-Camborne-Mana-Inlet | 2.29 | 2.27 | -0.03 | 2.3000 | 2016 | 448 | 130 |
| Paremata-Papakowhai | 2.20 | 2.18 | -0.02 | 2.1900 | 2016 | 448 | 140 |
| Porirua East-Ranui Heights | 2.30 | 2.27 | -0.03 | 2.3100 | 2016 | 448 | 150 |
| Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia | 1.95 | 2.07 | +0.12 | 1.9400 | 2016 | 448 | 160 |
| Pukerua Bay-Plimmerton | 2.29 | 2.27 | -0.02 | 2.3000 | 2016 | 448 | 170 |
| Titahi Bay | 2.31 | 2.28 | -0.03 | 2.3100 | 2016 | 448 | 180 |
| Titahi Bay South-Mana Island | 2.29 | 2.53 | +0.24 | 2.2900 | 2016 | 448 | 190 |
| Upper Cannons Creek | 2.33 | 2.64 | +0.31 | 2.3300 | 2016 | 448 | 200 |
| Waitangirua | 2.34 | 2.55 | +0.21 | 2.3300 | 2016 | 448 | 210 |
| Whitby East | 2.31 | 2.42 | +0.12 | 2.3100 | 2016 | 448 | 220 |
| Whitby West | 2.34 | 2.55 | +0.21 | 2.3300 | 2016 | 448 | 230 |
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id (opens a new window)(informed decisions), July 2020.
Death rates
The forecast number of deaths in Porirua City is based on the published numbers of deaths by age for Area Units by Statistics New Zealand. For historical years, rates are based on totals for Porirua City, which have been extrapolated into the future, assuming an increase in expectation of life in all age groups (except 85 and over).
Death rates are influential in shaping the numbers of older people in an area's population. Death rates too have been changing with higher life expectancy at most ages, with men gaining on women's greater life chances.
In 2017, Waitangirua is estimated to have the highest fertility rate of 2.34 (births per woman), this is expected to increase to 2.55 in 2048.