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Porirua CityPopulation forecast


Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia is 0-4 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2018 to 2023.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Porirua City depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • An area of increased residential development in the 2019-2023 period with growth driven by Kenepuru Hospital Land development, resulting in net migration gains of residents in many age groups
  • Gain of young families aged 25-34 years old with children aged 0-9 years
  • Gain of established families aged 35-44 years with children aged 10-14 years
  • Minor loss of adults aged 15-24 years followed by a gain of adults in this age group as residential development begins to contribute to population growth
  • Some gain of older adults and empty nesters aged 45-59 years old, taking advantage of the new housing opportunities in the area
  • Some minor gain of the elderly and frail elderly aged 80+ years

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