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Porirua CityPopulation forecast

Porirua City

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Porirua City is 35-39 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2023 to 2028.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Porirua City depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • The age specific net migration profiles for Porirua City remain relatively similar throughout the forecast period.
  • Absolute volumes of net gains and losses are also affected by the influx and residential development volumes in different periods.
  • There is a gain of young couples aged 25-29 years and young families with children aged 30-39 (with children aged 0-14 years) – moving to areas such as Aotea and later on the Northern Growth Area where there is housing availability for families and first home owners.
  • A loss of young adults aged 15-24 years relates to younger people leaving the City in search of education and employment opportunities elsewhere (in Wellington, Auckland, Dunedin and regionally for employment opportunities).
  • Slight gain of older adults aged 40-44 years and later in the forecast period, of 45-54 year olds too who move to the area due to various new housing opportunities in the City.
  • Slight losses of empty nesters and early retirees aged 55-64 years.
  • Slight gains of the elderly in the area, moving to aged care and retirement home facilities.

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