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Porirua CityPopulation forecast

Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui indicate a 145.9% increase in population under working age, a 150.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 80.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui - Total persons201320282048Change between 2013 and 2048
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4453.52389.41,0187.9+974
5 to 9957.52158.51,0768.4+981
10 to 1413010.32118.31,1128.6+982
15 to 191159.11174.69077.1+792
20 to 24705.5883.55604.4+490
25 to 29292.31214.84223.3+393
30 to 34302.31676.65864.6+557
35 to 39554.32038.08466.6+791
40 to 441108.72218.71,0748.4+963
45 to 4916513.11897.41,1829.2+1,017
50 to 5413010.31746.81,1058.6+975
55 to 591058.31616.39277.2+822
60 to 64705.61465.77065.5+635
65 to 69554.41024.04883.8+433
70 to 74302.4773.03352.6+306
75 to 79100.8502.02271.8+217
80 to 84100.8311.21411.1+131
85 and over90.7251.01441.1+136
Total persons1,263100.02,534100.012,857100.0+11,594
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 13.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4, which is expected to increase by 193 and account for 9.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 238 persons.

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