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Porirua CityPopulation forecast


Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia indicate a 109.4% increase in population under working age, a 129.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 86.4% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia - Total persons201320282048Change between 2013 and 2048
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42308.54278.13837.2+152
5 to 91666.14177.93596.8+193
10 to 142007.44047.73596.8+158
15 to 192569.54197.93777.1+121
20 to 242168.03697.03626.8+147
25 to 292047.53727.03476.5+143
30 to 341736.44077.73556.7+182
35 to 391846.84157.83666.9+182
40 to 442017.43957.53576.7+156
45 to 491616.03566.73416.4+180
50 to 541756.52825.33286.2+153
55 to 591666.12474.73075.8+141
60 to 641214.52003.82755.2+154
65 to 69813.01753.32394.5+158
70 to 74752.81492.81953.7+119
75 to 79301.11102.11663.1+136
80 to 84351.3721.41182.2+82
85 and over281.1661.2831.6+55
Total persons2,701100.05,281100.05,315100.0+2,613
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 9.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 5 to 9, which is expected to increase by 251 and account for 7.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 427 persons.

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