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Porirua CityPopulation forecast


Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia indicate a 102.5% increase in males under working age, a 115.6% increase in males of retirement age, and a 84.7% increase in males of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia - Total males201620282048Change between 2016 and 2048
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41118.12228.41997.5+87
5 to 91118.12158.21867.1+75
10 to 14997.22138.11887.1+89
15 to 191218.82318.82057.8+84
20 to 241178.52007.61957.4+77
25 to 291118.01987.51857.0+74
30 to 34987.12077.91826.9+84
35 to 39987.12077.91867.0+87
40 to 44866.31877.11726.5+85
45 to 49876.31706.51686.4+81
50 to 54916.61355.11586.0+67
55 to 59745.41194.51475.6+73
60 to 64624.5913.51284.9+66
65 to 69453.3692.61054.0+59
70 to 74251.8662.5843.2+59
75 to 79241.8431.7712.7+47
80 to 8490.6311.2491.9+40
85 and over60.4261.0341.3+28
Total persons1,377100.02,631100.02,641100.0+1,264
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for males in Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 8.8% of the total males.

The largest increase in males between 2016 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 10 to 14, which is expected to increase by 113 and account for 8.1% of the total males.

The largest male 5 year age group in 2028 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 231 males.

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