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Porirua CityPopulation forecast


Population and age structure

Between 2027 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia indicate a 1.2% decrease in population under working age, a 2.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a --% stable trend in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia - Total persons202720282048Change between 2027 and 2048
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 44358.24278.13837.2-52
5 to 94218.04177.93596.8-62
10 to 144077.74047.73596.8-48
15 to 194187.94197.93777.1-41
20 to 243676.93697.03626.8-4
25 to 293857.33727.03476.5-38
30 to 344147.84077.73556.7-60
35 to 394197.94157.83666.9-53
40 to 443947.53957.53576.7-37
45 to 493486.63566.73416.4-7
50 to 542725.22825.33286.2+55
55 to 592424.62474.73075.8+65
60 to 642033.82003.82755.2+72
65 to 691713.21753.32394.5+68
70 to 741412.71492.81953.7+53
75 to 791062.01102.11663.1+60
80 to 84711.3721.41182.2+47
85 and over671.3661.2831.6+16
Total persons5,281100.05,281100.05,315100.0+34
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2027, the dominant age structure for persons in Porirua-Elsdon-Takapuwahia was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 8.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2027 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 50 to 54, which is expected to increase by 10 and account for 5.3% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 427 persons.

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