Porirua CityPopulation forecast
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Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui indicate a 145.9% increase in population under working age, a 150.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 80.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Porirua City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4453.52389.49868.8+942
5 to 9957.52158.51,0069.0+911
10 to 1413010.32118.31,0149.0+885
15 to 191159.11174.67636.8+648
20 to 24705.5883.54103.6+339
25 to 29292.31214.83633.2+334
30 to 34302.31676.65755.1+545
35 to 39554.32038.08417.5+786
40 to 441108.72218.71,0399.3+928
45 to 4916513.11897.41,0639.5+897
50 to 5413010.31746.89078.1+777
55 to 591058.31616.37236.4+618
60 to 64705.61465.75224.6+451
65 to 69554.41024.03513.1+296
70 to 74302.4773.02452.2+215
75 to 79100.8502.01761.6+166
80 to 84100.8311.21071.0+97
85 and over90.7251.01361.2+128
Total persons1,263100.02,534100.011,228100.0+9,965

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, January 2020.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 136 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 107 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 176 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 245 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 351 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 522 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 723 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 907 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 1,063 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 1,039 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 841 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 575 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 363 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 410 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 763 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 1,014 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 1,006 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 986 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 25 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 31 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 50 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 77 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 102 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 146 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 161 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 174 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 189 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 221 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 203 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 167 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 121 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 88 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 117 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 211 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 215 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 238 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 9 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 10 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 10 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 30 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 55 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 70 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 105 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 130 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 165 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 110 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 55 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 30 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 29 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 70 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 115 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 130 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 95 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 45
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, January 2020.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 112 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 76 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 127 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 168 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: 249 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: 376 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: 562 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 733 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 874 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 817 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 638 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 408 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: 243 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: 322 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: 645 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 803 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: 790 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 748 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 16 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 21 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 40 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 47 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 47 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 75 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: 56 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: 44 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: 23 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: 111 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: 148 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 138 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 91 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: 17 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: 3 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: 81 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: 120 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: 193
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, January 2020.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 13.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4, which is expected to increase by 193 and account for 9.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 238 persons.

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