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Porirua CityPopulation forecast

Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui indicate a 145.9% increase in population under working age, a 150.0% increase in population of retirement age, and a 80.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 4453.52389.49868.8+942
5 to 9957.52158.51,0069.0+911
10 to 1413010.32118.31,0149.0+885
15 to 191159.11174.67636.8+648
20 to 24705.5883.54103.6+339
25 to 29292.31214.83633.2+334
30 to 34302.31676.65755.1+545
35 to 39554.32038.08417.5+786
40 to 441108.72218.71,0399.3+928
45 to 4916513.11897.41,0639.5+897
50 to 5413010.31746.89078.1+777
55 to 591058.31616.37236.4+618
60 to 64705.61465.75224.6+451
65 to 69554.41024.03513.1+296
70 to 74302.4773.02452.2+215
75 to 79100.8502.01761.6+166
80 to 84100.8311.21071.0+97
85 and over90.7251.01361.2+128
Total persons1,263100.02,534100.011,228100.0+9,965
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, January 2020.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Paekakariki Hill-Pauatahanui was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 13.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 0 to 4, which is expected to increase by 193 and account for 9.4% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 0 to 4 years, with a total of 238 persons.

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