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Porirua CityPopulation forecast


Population and age structure

Between 2016 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Paremata-Papakowhai indicate a 5.5% increase in population under working age, a 41.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 11.8% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Paremata-Papakowhai is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Paremata-Papakowhai - Total persons201620282048Change between 2016 and 2048
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 45588.05126.45136.4-45
5 to 95648.15526.95296.6-36
10 to 144446.45887.45386.7+94
15 to 193765.45797.25166.5+141
20 to 243384.84645.84625.8+124
25 to 293404.93544.43924.9+52
30 to 344236.13904.94135.2-11
35 to 395658.14916.14886.1-76
40 to 445768.25416.85116.4-65
45 to 495277.55897.45226.5-5
50 to 544766.85817.35116.4+35
55 to 594666.75446.85026.3+36
60 to 643805.44625.84786.0+99
65 to 693294.74345.44595.7+130
70 to 742653.83654.64305.4+166
75 to 791902.72823.53674.6+177
80 to 84961.41652.12282.9+133
85 and over791.11141.41461.8+67
Total persons6,991100.08,006100.08,005100.0+1,013
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2019.

Key findings

In 2016, the dominant age structure for persons in Paremata-Papakowhai was ages 40 to 44, which accounted for 8.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2016 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 15 to 19, which is expected to increase by 204 and account for 7.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 45 to 49 years, with a total of 589 persons.

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