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Porirua CityPopulation forecast

Titahi Bay South-Mana Island

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Titahi Bay South-Mana Island indicate a 2.8% decrease in population under working age, a 37.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 1.5% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Titahi Bay South-Mana Island is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Titahi Bay South-Mana Island - Total persons201320282048Change between 2013 and 2048
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 436810.03258.43748.9+7
5 to 93489.43298.53608.6+12
10 to 142697.33037.83217.6+52
15 to 192306.22817.32836.7+53
20 to 242105.72416.22526.0+42
25 to 292476.72265.82536.0+5
30 to 342767.52426.32666.3-9
35 to 392697.32536.52726.5+4
40 to 442617.12496.42596.2-2
45 to 492206.02295.92325.5+11
50 to 542095.72025.22054.9-4
55 to 592005.41965.11974.7-3
60 to 641413.81794.61904.5+49
65 to 691413.81754.51834.4+41
70 to 74992.71614.21734.1+74
75 to 79691.91122.91563.7+87
80 to 84812.2872.21192.8+39
85 and over541.5762.01002.4+46
Total persons3,691100.03,865100.04,195100.0+504
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2048, prepared by .id (informed decisions), November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Titahi Bay South-Mana Island was ages 0 to 4, which accounted for 10.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 62 and account for 4.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 329 persons.

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