Porirua CityPopulation forecast
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Pukerua Bay-Plimmerton

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Pukerua Bay-Plimmerton will increase by an average of 78 dwellings per annum to 4,003 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Porirua City. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2006-2013 dwelling additions are based on dwelling counts recorded at the 2013 Census. Assumptions concerning development over the post 2013 period include:

  • Plimmerton Farms Short Term - 500 dwellings (2020 - 2029)
  • Plimmerton Farms - Northern Growth Area Standard Residential - 152 dwellings (2024 - 2030)
  • Plimmerton Farms - Northern Growth Area Standard Residential - 93 dwellings (2025 - 2034)
  • Plimmerton Farms - Northern Growth Area Standard Residential - 234 dwellings (2026 - 2032)
  • Northern Growth Area Rural Residential (Pukerua Bay-Plimmerton) - 3 dwellings (2027 - 2031)
  • Northern Growth Area Rural Residential (Pukerua Bay-Plimmerton) - 190 dwellings (2027 - 2035)
  • Plimmerton Farms - Northern Growth Area Standard Residential - 429 dwellings (2028 - 2037)
  • Plimmerton Farms - Northern Growth Area Standard Residential - 260 dwellings (2029 - 2041)
  • Pukerua Bay West (Northern Growth Area) - 290 dwellings (2032 - 2041)
  • Northern Growth Area Deferred Land/Long Term Development (Pukerua Bay-Plimmerton) - 40 dwellings (2035 - 2043)
  • Low infill development (5-6 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 4,003 2042 Total dwellings: 3,987 2041 Total dwellings: 3,971 2040 Total dwellings: 3,940 2039 Total dwellings: 3,879 2038 Total dwellings: 3,818 2037 Total dwellings: 3,737 2036 Total dwellings: 3,642 2035 Total dwellings: 3,511 2034 Total dwellings: 3,375 2033 Total dwellings: 3,226 2032 Total dwellings: 3,075 2031 Total dwellings: 2,941 2030 Total dwellings: 2,775 2029 Total dwellings: 2,618 2028 Total dwellings: 2,467 2027 Total dwellings: 2,337 2026 Total dwellings: 2,201 2025 Total dwellings: 2,081 2024 Total dwellings: 1,986 2023 Total dwellings: 1,901 2022 Total dwellings: 1,836 2021 Total dwellings: 1,771 2020 Total dwellings: 1,716 2019 Total dwellings: 1,681 2018 Total dwellings: 1,676 2017 Total dwellings: 1,671 2016 Total dwellings: 1,666 2015 Total dwellings: 1,661 2014 Total dwellings: 1,656 2043 Total dwellings: 4,003 2042 Total dwellings: 3,987 2041 Total dwellings: 3,971 2040 Total dwellings: 3,940 2039 Total dwellings: 3,879 2038 Total dwellings: 3,818 2037 Total dwellings: 3,737 2036 Total dwellings: 3,642 2035 Total dwellings: 3,511 2034 Total dwellings: 3,375 2033 Total dwellings: 3,226 2032 Total dwellings: 3,075 2031 Total dwellings: 2,941 2030 Total dwellings: 2,775 2029 Total dwellings: 2,618 2028 Total dwellings: 2,467 2027 Total dwellings: 2,337 2026 Total dwellings: 2,201 2025 Total dwellings: 2,081 2024 Total dwellings: 1,986 2023 Total dwellings: 1,901 2022 Total dwellings: 1,836 2021 Total dwellings: 1,771 2020 Total dwellings: 1,716 2019 Total dwellings: 1,681 2018 Total dwellings: 1,676 2017 Total dwellings: 1,671 2016 Total dwellings: 1,666 2015 Total dwellings: 1,661 2014 Total dwellings: 1,656 2043 Forecast development: 16 2042 Forecast development: 16 2041 Forecast development: 31 2040 Forecast development: 61 2039 Forecast development: 61 2038 Forecast development: 81 2037 Forecast development: 95 2036 Forecast development: 131 2035 Forecast development: 136 2034 Forecast development: 149 2033 Forecast development: 151 2032 Forecast development: 134 2031 Forecast development: 166 2030 Forecast development: 157 2029 Forecast development: 151 2028 Forecast development: 130 2027 Forecast development: 136 2026 Forecast development: 120 2025 Forecast development: 95 2024 Forecast development: 85 2023 Forecast development: 65 2022 Forecast development: 65 2021 Forecast development: 55 2020 Forecast development: 35 2019 Forecast development: 5 2018 Forecast development: 5 2017 Forecast development: 5 2016 Forecast development: 5 2015 Forecast development: 5 2014 Forecast development: 5
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2019.
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