Wairarapa RegionPopulation forecast
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Wairarapa

Components of population change

The greatest population change for the Wairarapa is forecast for the period from 2014 to 2018, which is expected to have a net increase of 2,671 people.

There are two ways in which populations can change, through net migration and/or through natural increase (births minus deaths). Some areas are more driven by one or other of these factors. Migration is largely driven by housing development, whereas natural increase is a function of the age of the population.

Components of population change
WairarapaForecast period
Component2014 to 20182019 to 20232024 to 20282029 to 20332034 to 20382039 to 2043
Births2,4462,5192,5542,5772,6252,702
Deaths2,1972,2902,4602,6912,9033,052
Natural increase/decrease24922994-114-277-350
Net migration2,4331,6921,7161,8612,2752,559
Change in persons in non-private dwellings-116574406020

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2018.

Forecast population change
Forecast population change 2043 forecast population change: 466 2042 forecast population change: 477 2041 forecast population change: 451 2040 forecast population change: 421 2039 forecast population change: 414 2038 forecast population change: 462 2037 forecast population change: 435 2036 forecast population change: 413 2035 forecast population change: 378 2034 forecast population change: 369 2033 forecast population change: 422 2032 forecast population change: 352 2031 forecast population change: 342 2030 forecast population change: 332 2029 forecast population change: 340 2028 forecast population change: 326 2027 forecast population change: 389 2026 forecast population change: 360 2025 forecast population change: 405 2024 forecast population change: 404 2023 forecast population change: 443 2022 forecast population change: 408 2021 forecast population change: 338 2020 forecast population change: 396 2019 forecast population change: 401 2018 forecast population change: 589 2017 forecast population change: 502 2016 forecast population change: 466 2015 forecast population change: 516 2014 forecast population change: 598
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2018.
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease 2043 Natural increase: -71 2042 Natural increase: -72 2041 Natural increase: -70 2040 Natural increase: -70 2039 Natural increase: -68 2038 Natural increase: -66 2037 Natural increase: -61 2036 Natural increase: -56 2035 Natural increase: -50 2034 Natural increase: -45 2033 Natural increase: -38 2032 Natural increase: -33 2031 Natural increase: -25 2030 Natural increase: -13 2029 Natural increase: -5 2028 Natural increase: 3 2027 Natural increase: 12 2026 Natural increase: 19 2025 Natural increase: 27 2024 Natural increase: 32 2023 Natural increase: 40 2022 Natural increase: 43 2021 Natural increase: 46 2020 Natural increase: 50 2019 Natural increase: 49 2018 Natural increase: 45 2017 Natural increase: 42 2016 Natural increase: 45 2015 Natural increase: 54 2014 Natural increase: 63 2043 Total deaths: 618 2042 Total deaths: 615 2041 Total deaths: 610 2040 Total deaths: 607 2039 Total deaths: 602 2038 Total deaths: 596 2037 Total deaths: 589 2036 Total deaths: 580 2035 Total deaths: 572 2034 Total deaths: 565 2033 Total deaths: 556 2032 Total deaths: 549 2031 Total deaths: 540 2030 Total deaths: 528 2029 Total deaths: 518 2028 Total deaths: 510 2027 Total deaths: 500 2026 Total deaths: 492 2025 Total deaths: 483 2024 Total deaths: 475 2023 Total deaths: 466 2022 Total deaths: 462 2021 Total deaths: 458 2020 Total deaths: 453 2019 Total deaths: 452 2018 Total deaths: 452 2017 Total deaths: 450 2016 Total deaths: 445 2015 Total deaths: 433 2014 Total deaths: 417 2043 Total births: 547 2042 Total births: 544 2041 Total births: 540 2040 Total births: 537 2039 Total births: 534 2038 Total births: 531 2037 Total births: 528 2036 Total births: 525 2035 Total births: 522 2034 Total births: 520 2033 Total births: 518 2032 Total births: 516 2031 Total births: 515 2030 Total births: 514 2029 Total births: 514 2028 Total births: 513 2027 Total births: 513 2026 Total births: 511 2025 Total births: 510 2024 Total births: 508 2023 Total births: 505 2022 Total births: 505 2021 Total births: 504 2020 Total births: 503 2019 Total births: 501 2018 Total births: 497 2017 Total births: 493 2016 Total births: 490 2015 Total births: 487 2014 Total births: 480 2043 Natural increase: -71 2042 Natural increase: -72 2041 Natural increase: -70 2040 Natural increase: -70 2039 Natural increase: -68 2038 Natural increase: -66 2037 Natural increase: -61 2036 Natural increase: -56 2035 Natural increase: -50 2034 Natural increase: -45 2033 Natural increase: -38 2032 Natural increase: -33 2031 Natural increase: -25 2030 Natural increase: -13 2029 Natural increase: -5 2028 Natural increase: 3 2027 Natural increase: 12 2026 Natural increase: 19 2025 Natural increase: 27 2024 Natural increase: 32 2023 Natural increase: 40 2022 Natural increase: 43 2021 Natural increase: 46 2020 Natural increase: 50 2019 Natural increase: 49 2018 Natural increase: 45 2017 Natural increase: 42 2016 Natural increase: 45 2015 Natural increase: 54 2014 Natural increase: 63 2043 Total deaths: 618 2042 Total deaths: 615 2041 Total deaths: 610 2040 Total deaths: 607 2039 Total deaths: 602 2038 Total deaths: 596 2037 Total deaths: 589 2036 Total deaths: 580 2035 Total deaths: 572 2034 Total deaths: 565 2033 Total deaths: 556 2032 Total deaths: 549 2031 Total deaths: 540 2030 Total deaths: 528 2029 Total deaths: 518 2028 Total deaths: 510 2027 Total deaths: 500 2026 Total deaths: 492 2025 Total deaths: 483 2024 Total deaths: 475 2023 Total deaths: 466 2022 Total deaths: 462 2021 Total deaths: 458 2020 Total deaths: 453 2019 Total deaths: 452 2018 Total deaths: 452 2017 Total deaths: 450 2016 Total deaths: 445 2015 Total deaths: 433 2014 Total deaths: 417 2043 Total births: 547 2042 Total births: 544 2041 Total births: 540 2040 Total births: 537 2039 Total births: 534 2038 Total births: 531 2037 Total births: 528 2036 Total births: 525 2035 Total births: 522 2034 Total births: 520 2033 Total births: 518 2032 Total births: 516 2031 Total births: 515 2030 Total births: 514 2029 Total births: 514 2028 Total births: 513 2027 Total births: 513 2026 Total births: 511 2025 Total births: 510 2024 Total births: 508 2023 Total births: 505 2022 Total births: 505 2021 Total births: 504 2020 Total births: 503 2019 Total births: 501 2018 Total births: 497 2017 Total births: 493 2016 Total births: 490 2015 Total births: 487 2014 Total births: 480
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2018.
Forecast in, out and net migration
Forecast in, out and net migration 2043 Total net migration: 536 2042 Total net migration: 529 2041 Total net migration: 521 2040 Total net migration: 491 2039 Total net migration: 482 2038 Total net migration: 498 2037 Total net migration: 467 2036 Total net migration: 468 2035 Total net migration: 428 2034 Total net migration: 414 2033 Total net migration: 420 2032 Total net migration: 385 2031 Total net migration: 367 2030 Total net migration: 345 2029 Total net migration: 344 2028 Total net migration: 312 2027 Total net migration: 313 2026 Total net migration: 341 2025 Total net migration: 378 2024 Total net migration: 371 2023 Total net migration: 389 2022 Total net migration: 315 2021 Total net migration: 292 2020 Total net migration: 346 2019 Total net migration: 351 2018 Total net migration: 524 2017 Total net migration: 491 2016 Total net migration: 421 2015 Total net migration: 463 2014 Total net migration: 535 2043 Total out migration: 3,928 2042 Total out migration: 3,896 2041 Total out migration: 3,865 2040 Total out migration: 3,836 2039 Total out migration: 3,808 2038 Total out migration: 3,778 2037 Total out migration: 3,750 2036 Total out migration: 3,722 2035 Total out migration: 3,696 2034 Total out migration: 3,672 2033 Total out migration: 3,646 2032 Total out migration: 3,623 2031 Total out migration: 3,601 2030 Total out migration: 3,581 2029 Total out migration: 3,561 2028 Total out migration: 3,543 2027 Total out migration: 3,525 2026 Total out migration: 3,505 2025 Total out migration: 3,481 2024 Total out migration: 3,459 2023 Total out migration: 3,436 2022 Total out migration: 3,420 2021 Total out migration: 3,405 2020 Total out migration: 3,382 2019 Total out migration: 3,357 2018 Total out migration: 3,319 2017 Total out migration: 3,286 2016 Total out migration: 3,261 2015 Total out migration: 3,230 2014 Total out migration: 3,222 2043 Total in migration: 4,464 2042 Total in migration: 4,425 2041 Total in migration: 4,386 2040 Total in migration: 4,327 2039 Total in migration: 4,290 2038 Total in migration: 4,275 2037 Total in migration: 4,217 2036 Total in migration: 4,190 2035 Total in migration: 4,123 2034 Total in migration: 4,086 2033 Total in migration: 4,066 2032 Total in migration: 4,008 2031 Total in migration: 3,968 2030 Total in migration: 3,926 2029 Total in migration: 3,905 2028 Total in migration: 3,855 2027 Total in migration: 3,838 2026 Total in migration: 3,846 2025 Total in migration: 3,859 2024 Total in migration: 3,830 2023 Total in migration: 3,824 2022 Total in migration: 3,735 2021 Total in migration: 3,696 2020 Total in migration: 3,728 2019 Total in migration: 3,709 2018 Total in migration: 3,843 2017 Total in migration: 3,777 2016 Total in migration: 3,682 2015 Total in migration: 3,693 2014 Total in migration: 3,757 2043 Total net migration: 536 2042 Total net migration: 529 2041 Total net migration: 521 2040 Total net migration: 491 2039 Total net migration: 482 2038 Total net migration: 498 2037 Total net migration: 467 2036 Total net migration: 468 2035 Total net migration: 428 2034 Total net migration: 414 2033 Total net migration: 420 2032 Total net migration: 385 2031 Total net migration: 367 2030 Total net migration: 345 2029 Total net migration: 344 2028 Total net migration: 312 2027 Total net migration: 313 2026 Total net migration: 341 2025 Total net migration: 378 2024 Total net migration: 371 2023 Total net migration: 389 2022 Total net migration: 315 2021 Total net migration: 292 2020 Total net migration: 346 2019 Total net migration: 351 2018 Total net migration: 524 2017 Total net migration: 491 2016 Total net migration: 421 2015 Total net migration: 463 2014 Total net migration: 535 2043 Total out migration: 3,928 2042 Total out migration: 3,896 2041 Total out migration: 3,865 2040 Total out migration: 3,836 2039 Total out migration: 3,808 2038 Total out migration: 3,778 2037 Total out migration: 3,750 2036 Total out migration: 3,722 2035 Total out migration: 3,696 2034 Total out migration: 3,672 2033 Total out migration: 3,646 2032 Total out migration: 3,623 2031 Total out migration: 3,601 2030 Total out migration: 3,581 2029 Total out migration: 3,561 2028 Total out migration: 3,543 2027 Total out migration: 3,525 2026 Total out migration: 3,505 2025 Total out migration: 3,481 2024 Total out migration: 3,459 2023 Total out migration: 3,436 2022 Total out migration: 3,420 2021 Total out migration: 3,405 2020 Total out migration: 3,382 2019 Total out migration: 3,357 2018 Total out migration: 3,319 2017 Total out migration: 3,286 2016 Total out migration: 3,261 2015 Total out migration: 3,230 2014 Total out migration: 3,222 2043 Total in migration: 4,464 2042 Total in migration: 4,425 2041 Total in migration: 4,386 2040 Total in migration: 4,327 2039 Total in migration: 4,290 2038 Total in migration: 4,275 2037 Total in migration: 4,217 2036 Total in migration: 4,190 2035 Total in migration: 4,123 2034 Total in migration: 4,086 2033 Total in migration: 4,066 2032 Total in migration: 4,008 2031 Total in migration: 3,968 2030 Total in migration: 3,926 2029 Total in migration: 3,905 2028 Total in migration: 3,855 2027 Total in migration: 3,838 2026 Total in migration: 3,846 2025 Total in migration: 3,859 2024 Total in migration: 3,830 2023 Total in migration: 3,824 2022 Total in migration: 3,735 2021 Total in migration: 3,696 2020 Total in migration: 3,728 2019 Total in migration: 3,709 2018 Total in migration: 3,843 2017 Total in migration: 3,777 2016 Total in migration: 3,682 2015 Total in migration: 3,693 2014 Total in migration: 3,757
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2018.
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