Wairarapa RegionPopulation forecast
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Wairarapa

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in the Wairarapa is 35-39 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2013 to 2018.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Wairarapa depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • The Wairarapa area as a whole will continue to experience a net gain of young and established families aged 30-44 years with children aged 0-14 years
  • There is also a net gain of mature adults and empty nesters aged 45-59 years who may move here for a lifestyle choice or are downsizing from a more urban environment elsewhere, e.g. Wellington City
  • Loss of young adults aged 17-24 years who leave the area in search of education and employment opportunities elsewhere regionally (e.g. Wellington) or further away
  • Little change in net migration movments of older residents aged 80+ years
Forecast net migration by age group
Forecast net migration by age group Persons aged 85+,  2023 to 2028: 9 Persons aged 80-84,  2023 to 2028: -6 Persons aged 75-79,  2023 to 2028: -53 Persons aged 70-74,  2023 to 2028: -8 Persons aged 65-69,  2023 to 2028: 56 Persons aged 60-64,  2023 to 2028: 134 Persons aged 55-59,  2023 to 2028: 156 Persons aged 50-54,  2023 to 2028: 244 Persons aged 45-49,  2023 to 2028: 291 Persons aged 40-44,  2023 to 2028: 438 Persons aged 35-39,  2023 to 2028: 422 Persons aged 30-34,  2023 to 2028: 317 Persons aged 25-29,  2023 to 2028: 72 Persons aged 20-24,  2023 to 2028: -342 Persons aged 15-19,  2023 to 2028: -474 Persons aged 10-14,  2023 to 2028: -45 Persons aged 5-9,  2023 to 2028: 221 Persons aged 0-4,  2023 to 2028: 284 Persons aged 85+,  2018 to 2023: 5 Persons aged 80-84,  2018 to 2023: 12 Persons aged 75-79,  2018 to 2023: -32 Persons aged 70-74,  2018 to 2023: -7 Persons aged 65-69,  2018 to 2023: 71 Persons aged 60-64,  2018 to 2023: 134 Persons aged 55-59,  2018 to 2023: 160 Persons aged 50-54,  2018 to 2023: 224 Persons aged 45-49,  2018 to 2023: 267 Persons aged 40-44,  2018 to 2023: 428 Persons aged 35-39,  2018 to 2023: 419 Persons aged 30-34,  2018 to 2023: 315 Persons aged 25-29,  2018 to 2023: 90 Persons aged 20-24,  2018 to 2023: -354 Persons aged 15-19,  2018 to 2023: -429 Persons aged 10-14,  2018 to 2023: -75 Persons aged 5-9,  2018 to 2023: 198 Persons aged 0-4,  2018 to 2023: 265 Persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2018: 41 Persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2018: 52 Persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2018: 1 Persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2018: 32 Persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2018: 97 Persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2018: 185 Persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2018: 180 Persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2018: 259 Persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2018: 274 Persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2018: 457 Persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2018: 502 Persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2018: 402 Persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2018: 149 Persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2018: -304 Persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2018: -440 Persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2018: -11 Persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2018: 248 Persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2018: 308 Persons aged 85+,  2023 to 2028: 9 Persons aged 80-84,  2023 to 2028: -6 Persons aged 75-79,  2023 to 2028: -53 Persons aged 70-74,  2023 to 2028: -8 Persons aged 65-69,  2023 to 2028: 56 Persons aged 60-64,  2023 to 2028: 134 Persons aged 55-59,  2023 to 2028: 156 Persons aged 50-54,  2023 to 2028: 244 Persons aged 45-49,  2023 to 2028: 291 Persons aged 40-44,  2023 to 2028: 438 Persons aged 35-39,  2023 to 2028: 422 Persons aged 30-34,  2023 to 2028: 317 Persons aged 25-29,  2023 to 2028: 72 Persons aged 20-24,  2023 to 2028: -342 Persons aged 15-19,  2023 to 2028: -474 Persons aged 10-14,  2023 to 2028: -45 Persons aged 5-9,  2023 to 2028: 221 Persons aged 0-4,  2023 to 2028: 284 Persons aged 85+,  2018 to 2023: 5 Persons aged 80-84,  2018 to 2023: 12 Persons aged 75-79,  2018 to 2023: -32 Persons aged 70-74,  2018 to 2023: -7 Persons aged 65-69,  2018 to 2023: 71 Persons aged 60-64,  2018 to 2023: 134 Persons aged 55-59,  2018 to 2023: 160 Persons aged 50-54,  2018 to 2023: 224 Persons aged 45-49,  2018 to 2023: 267 Persons aged 40-44,  2018 to 2023: 428 Persons aged 35-39,  2018 to 2023: 419 Persons aged 30-34,  2018 to 2023: 315 Persons aged 25-29,  2018 to 2023: 90 Persons aged 20-24,  2018 to 2023: -354 Persons aged 15-19,  2018 to 2023: -429 Persons aged 10-14,  2018 to 2023: -75 Persons aged 5-9,  2018 to 2023: 198 Persons aged 0-4,  2018 to 2023: 265 Persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2018: 41 Persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2018: 52 Persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2018: 1 Persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2018: 32 Persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2018: 97 Persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2018: 185 Persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2018: 180 Persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2018: 259 Persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2018: 274 Persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2018: 457 Persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2018: 502 Persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2018: 402 Persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2018: 149 Persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2018: -304 Persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2018: -440 Persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2018: -11 Persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2018: 248 Persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2018: 308
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2018.
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