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Wairarapa RegionPopulation forecast

Carterton District

Net migration by age

The age group with the highest net migration in Carterton District is 35-39 year olds, this is forecast to occur in the period between 2013 to 2018.

Migration is one of the most important components of population change. Once you have established the amount of development activity in an area, the next step is to make assumptions about who will move into the area as well as who is leaving the area.

Net migration by age is an excellent way of understanding housing markets. The most mobile age groups in the population are young adults. They tend to move to attend educational institutions, seek work and express a change in lifestyle. Market research has shown that empty nesters are more likely to move to smaller accommodation when appropriate and affordable alternative housing is supplied in the local area that is accessible to established social networks.

Select each small area to see how migration patterns differ for each area across Wairarapa Region depending on their housing markets and stage in the suburb life cycle.

Major migration assumptions:

  • Relatively stable migration profile through the forecast.
  • The Carterton District will in the future have a net migration profile similar to what it had historically.
  • There will be a consistent gain of young and established families aged 30-44 years with children aged 0-9 years old.
  • There is also a slightly lower gain of mature adults and empty nesters aged 45-59 years and early retirees and retirees aged 60-74 years.
  • As persons in older age groups tend to be less mobile, there is very little movement in terms of net migration of those aged over 75 years.
  • The district will continue a typical loss of young adults aged 15-24 years, most likely 17-24 representing young adults who leave the district in search of education and employment opportunities elsewhere, either nearby, such as in Wellington or further away.

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