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Wairarapa RegionPopulation forecast

Wairarapa Region

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for the Wairarapa Region indicate a 2.5% increase in population under working age, a 39.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 10.7% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the Wairarapa Region is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Wairarapa Region - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)2,7406.52,6965.52,9245.3+184
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)3,9449.34,1528.54,5518.3+606
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)3,5828.43,6297.43,8757.0+294
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)2,9587.03,2956.73,4426.3+484
Young workforce (25 to 34)3,7338.84,3138.84,7468.6+1,014
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)8,03519.08,69617.89,73517.7+1,699
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)6,35015.06,78113.97,48213.6+1,131
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)5,61313.26,78813.97,44213.5+1,829
Seniors (70 to 84)4,44910.57,20514.78,75615.9+4,307
Elderly aged (85 and over)9862.31,3752.82,0523.7+1,065
Total persons42,390100.048,931100.055,005100.0+12,615
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2018.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in the Wairarapa Region was ages Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49), which accounted for 19.0% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages Seniors (70 to 84), which is expected to increase by 2,756 and account for 14.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49) years, with a total of 8,696 persons.

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