Wairarapa RegionPopulation forecast
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Carterton South

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Carterton South indicate a 11.2% increase in population under working age, a 71.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 20.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the Wairarapa is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Carterton South - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 41847.21815.51905.3+6
5 to 91515.91845.61915.3+40
10 to 141586.21835.61905.3+32
15 to 191526.01825.51825.1+30
20 to 241275.01464.41574.3+30
25 to 29923.61283.91383.8+47
30 to 341194.71434.31534.3+34
35 to 391576.11715.21795.0+22
40 to 441646.41885.71975.5+33
45 to 491646.42036.22105.8+46
50 to 541917.52166.62226.2+31
55 to 591867.32216.72336.5+47
60 to 641696.62296.92506.9+81
65 to 691746.82427.32597.2+85
70 to 741345.22276.92527.0+118
75 to 79853.31875.72306.4+145
80 to 84833.21474.41985.5+116
85 and over602.31173.61704.7+110
Total persons2,548100.03,296100.03,600100.0+1,052

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 170 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 198 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 230 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 252 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 259 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 250 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 233 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 222 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 210 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 197 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 179 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 153 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 138 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 157 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 182 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 190 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 191 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 190 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 117 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 147 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 187 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 227 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 242 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 229 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 221 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 216 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 203 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 188 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 171 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 143 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 128 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 146 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 182 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 183 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 184 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 181 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 60 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 83 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 85 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 134 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 174 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 169 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 186 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 191 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 164 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 164 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 157 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 119 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 92 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 127 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 152 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 158 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 151 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 184
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 53 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 52 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 44 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 24 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: 17 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: 21 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: 12 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 5 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 6 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 9 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 8 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 10 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: 10 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: 11 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: 0 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 6 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: 7 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 9 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 57 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 64 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 102 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 94 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 68 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 60 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: 35 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: 26 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: 39 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: 24 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: 14 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 24 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 37 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: 19 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: 30 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: 26 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: 33 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -3
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2018.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Carterton South was ages 50 to 54, which accounted for 7.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 102 and account for 5.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 242 persons.

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