Population and age structure
Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Carterton South indicate a 11.2% increase in population under working age, a 71.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 20.1% increase in population of working age.
Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.
The forecast age groups of the Wairarapa is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.
|Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups|
|Carterton South - Total persons||2013||2028||2043||Change between 2013 and 2043|
|Age group (years)||Number||%||Number||%||Number||%||Number|
|0 to 4||184||7.2||181||5.5||-3||190||5.3||+6||-3||9||3.2||0||21||2|
|5 to 9||151||5.9||184||5.6||33||191||5.3||+40||33||7||26.5||5||22||2|
|10 to 14||158||6.2||183||5.6||26||190||5.3||+32||26||6||20.4||10||23||2|
|15 to 19||152||6.0||182||5.5||30||182||5.1||+30||30||0||19.5||15||2||2|
|20 to 24||127||5.0||146||4.4||19||157||4.3||+30||19||11||23.3||20||3||2|
|25 to 29||92||3.6||128||3.9||37||138||3.8||+47||37||10||50.7||25||4||2|
|30 to 34||119||4.7||143||4.3||24||153||4.3||+34||24||10||28.7||30||5||2|
|35 to 39||157||6.1||171||5.2||14||179||5.0||+22||14||8||14.0||35||6||2|
|40 to 44||164||6.4||188||5.7||24||197||5.5||+33||24||9||20.1||40||7||2|
|45 to 49||164||6.4||203||6.2||39||210||5.8||+46||39||6||28.0||45||8||2|
|50 to 54||191||7.5||216||6.6||26||222||6.2||+31||26||5||16.3||50||9||2|
|55 to 59||186||7.3||221||6.7||35||233||6.5||+47||35||12||25.0||55||10||2|
|60 to 64||169||6.6||229||6.9||60||250||6.9||+81||60||21||48.1||60||11||2|
|65 to 69||174||6.8||242||7.3||68||259||7.2||+85||68||17||49.0||65||24||2|
|70 to 74||134||5.2||227||6.9||94||252||7.0||+118||94||24||88.1||70||25||2|
|75 to 79||85||3.3||187||5.7||102||230||6.4||+145||102||44||170.2||75||26||2|
|80 to 84||83||3.2||147||4.4||64||198||5.5||+116||64||52||140.2||80||27||2|
|85 and over||60||2.3||117||3.6||57||170||4.7||+110||57||53||184.4||85||19||2|
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (opens a new window), the population experts, March 2018.
In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Carterton South was ages 50 to 54, which accounted for 7.5% of the total persons.
The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 102 and account for 5.7% of the total persons.
The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 242 persons.