Wairarapa RegionPopulation forecast
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Carterton District Council

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Carterton District Council indicate a 0.9% increase in population under working age, a 69.2% increase in population of retirement age, and a 10.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the Wairarapa is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Carterton District Council - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 45506.55435.36055.3+55
5 to 95806.85825.76545.7+74
10 to 145606.65815.76445.6+84
15 to 195606.65985.96235.4+63
20 to 243404.04204.14363.8+96
25 to 292903.43553.53873.4+97
30 to 343704.44094.04594.0+89
35 to 394905.85045.05725.0+82
40 to 446007.15935.86675.8+67
45 to 496277.46636.57346.4+107
50 to 546577.76966.97576.6+100
55 to 596307.47267.27746.8+144
60 to 646207.37447.38107.1+190
65 to 696137.27597.58257.2+212
70 to 743994.76986.97906.9+391
75 to 792603.15795.76926.0+432
80 to 841902.24234.25534.8+363
85 and over1541.82752.74524.0+298
Total persons8,490100.010,147100.011,435100.0+2,945

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2018.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 452 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 553 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 692 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 790 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 825 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 810 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 774 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 757 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 734 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 667 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 572 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 459 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 387 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 436 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 623 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 644 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 654 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 605 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 275 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 423 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 579 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 698 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 759 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 744 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 726 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 696 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 663 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 593 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 504 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 409 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 355 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 420 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 598 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 581 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 582 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 543 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 154 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 190 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 260 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 399 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 613 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 620 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 630 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 657 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 627 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 600 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 490 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 370 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 290 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 340 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 560 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 560 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 580 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 550
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2018.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 177 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 130 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 113 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 93 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: 66 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: 66 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: 49 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 61 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 70 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 75 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 68 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 50 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: 32 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: 16 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: 25 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 62 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: 72 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 63 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 122 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 233 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 319 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 299 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 146 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 124 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: 96 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: 39 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: 37 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -7 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: 14 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 39 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 65 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: 80 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: 38 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: 21 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: 2 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -7
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2018.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Carterton District Council was ages 50 to 54, which accounted for 7.7% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 319 and account for 5.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 65 to 69 years, with a total of 759 persons.

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