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Wairarapa RegionPopulation forecast

South Wairarapa District

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for South Wairarapa District indicate a 2.4% increase in population under working age, a 46.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 11.4% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of South Wairarapa District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
South Wairarapa District - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 46506.66355.66885.4+38
5 to 96706.86775.97385.8+67
10 to 146006.16555.77145.6+114
15 to 195305.45745.05984.7+68
20 to 244104.24534.04813.8+71
25 to 293503.64313.84723.7+122
30 to 344204.35024.45474.3+127
35 to 395705.86085.36635.2+93
40 to 447057.26986.17696.0+64
45 to 497207.37806.88576.7+137
50 to 547948.18407.49097.1+115
55 to 597207.38837.79337.3+212
60 to 647407.68687.69487.4+209
65 to 697107.28427.49167.2+206
70 to 744905.06936.18306.5+340
75 to 793203.35634.96905.4+370
80 to 842102.14083.65284.1+318
85 and over1911.93132.74533.6+262
Total persons9,800100.011,421100.012,733100.0+2,933
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2018.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in South Wairarapa District was ages 50 to 54, which accounted for 8.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 75 to 79, which is expected to increase by 243 and account for 4.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 55 to 59 years, with a total of 883 persons.

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