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Wairarapa RegionPopulation forecast

Wairarapa Region

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for the Wairarapa Region indicate a 3.1% increase in population under working age, a 47.5% increase in population of retirement age, and a 9.4% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of the Wairarapa Region is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Wairarapa Region - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42,7406.52,6965.52,9245.3+184
5 to 92,8616.72,9436.03,2285.9+367
10 to 142,8306.73,0516.23,3216.0+491
15 to 192,7206.42,8585.82,9795.4+259
20 to 242,0734.92,2254.52,3404.3+266
25 to 291,7604.22,0534.22,2554.1+495
30 to 341,9724.72,2604.62,4924.5+519
35 to 392,2625.32,5955.32,8775.2+615
40 to 442,8656.82,9396.03,2956.0+430
45 to 492,9096.93,1626.53,5636.5+654
50 to 543,2137.63,3036.83,7086.7+495
55 to 593,1387.43,4787.13,7746.9+636
60 to 642,9406.93,4077.03,7766.9+836
65 to 692,6736.33,3816.93,6666.7+993
70 to 741,9894.73,0176.23,4386.2+1,449
75 to 791,4203.32,4425.02,9645.4+1,544
80 to 841,0402.51,7463.62,3544.3+1,314
85 and over9862.31,3752.82,0523.7+1,065
Total persons42,390100.048,931100.055,005100.0+12,615
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, March 2018.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in the Wairarapa Region was ages 50 to 54, which accounted for 7.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 70 to 74, which is expected to increase by 1,028 and account for 6.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 55 to 59 years, with a total of 3,478 persons.

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