Wairarapa RegionPopulation forecast
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Rural

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Rural will increase by an average of 11 dwellings per annum to 2,256 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in the Wairarapa. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2006-2013 dwelling additions are based on dwelling counts recorded at the 2013 Census. Assumptions concerning development over the post 2013 period include:

  • No major development sites identified
  • Medium-High levels of infill development (10-13 dwellings per annum)
  • Forecast residential development
    Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 2,256 2042 Total dwellings: 2,243 2041 Total dwellings: 2,230 2040 Total dwellings: 2,217 2039 Total dwellings: 2,204 2038 Total dwellings: 2,191 2037 Total dwellings: 2,178 2036 Total dwellings: 2,165 2035 Total dwellings: 2,152 2034 Total dwellings: 2,140 2033 Total dwellings: 2,128 2032 Total dwellings: 2,116 2031 Total dwellings: 2,104 2030 Total dwellings: 2,094 2029 Total dwellings: 2,084 2028 Total dwellings: 2,074 2027 Total dwellings: 2,064 2026 Total dwellings: 2,054 2025 Total dwellings: 2,044 2024 Total dwellings: 2,034 2023 Total dwellings: 2,026 2022 Total dwellings: 2,018 2021 Total dwellings: 2,010 2020 Total dwellings: 2,002 2019 Total dwellings: 1,994 2018 Total dwellings: 1,982 2017 Total dwellings: 1,971 2016 Total dwellings: 1,959 2015 Total dwellings: 1,947 2014 Total dwellings: 1,935 2043 Total dwellings: 2,256 2042 Total dwellings: 2,243 2041 Total dwellings: 2,230 2040 Total dwellings: 2,217 2039 Total dwellings: 2,204 2038 Total dwellings: 2,191 2037 Total dwellings: 2,178 2036 Total dwellings: 2,165 2035 Total dwellings: 2,152 2034 Total dwellings: 2,140 2033 Total dwellings: 2,128 2032 Total dwellings: 2,116 2031 Total dwellings: 2,104 2030 Total dwellings: 2,094 2029 Total dwellings: 2,084 2028 Total dwellings: 2,074 2027 Total dwellings: 2,064 2026 Total dwellings: 2,054 2025 Total dwellings: 2,044 2024 Total dwellings: 2,034 2023 Total dwellings: 2,026 2022 Total dwellings: 2,018 2021 Total dwellings: 2,010 2020 Total dwellings: 2,002 2019 Total dwellings: 1,994 2018 Total dwellings: 1,982 2017 Total dwellings: 1,971 2016 Total dwellings: 1,959 2015 Total dwellings: 1,947 2014 Total dwellings: 1,935 2043 Forecast development: 13 2042 Forecast development: 13 2041 Forecast development: 13 2040 Forecast development: 13 2039 Forecast development: 13 2038 Forecast development: 13 2037 Forecast development: 13 2036 Forecast development: 13 2035 Forecast development: 12 2034 Forecast development: 12 2033 Forecast development: 12 2032 Forecast development: 12 2031 Forecast development: 10 2030 Forecast development: 10 2029 Forecast development: 10 2028 Forecast development: 10 2027 Forecast development: 10 2026 Forecast development: 10 2025 Forecast development: 10 2024 Forecast development: 8 2023 Forecast development: 8 2022 Forecast development: 8 2021 Forecast development: 8 2020 Forecast development: 8 2019 Forecast development: 12 2018 Forecast development: 11 2017 Forecast development: 12 2016 Forecast development: 12 2015 Forecast development: 12 2014 Forecast development: 10
    Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2018.
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