Wairarapa RegionPopulation forecast
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Opaki - Fernridge

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Opaki - Fernridge will increase by an average of 21 dwellings per annum to 1,186 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in the Wairarapa. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2006-2013 dwelling additions are based on dwelling counts recorded at the 2013 Census. Assumptions concerning development over the post 2013 period include:

  • Cashmere Oaks Estate - 332 dwellings (2014 - 2043)
  • Upper Plains Future Development Areas (Chamberlain 2) - 110 dwellings (2038 - 2043)
  • Medium levels of infill development (5-8 dwellings per annum)
  • Forecast residential development
    Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 1,186 2042 Total dwellings: 1,141 2041 Total dwellings: 1,096 2040 Total dwellings: 1,056 2039 Total dwellings: 1,026 2038 Total dwellings: 996 2037 Total dwellings: 971 2036 Total dwellings: 951 2035 Total dwellings: 932 2034 Total dwellings: 913 2033 Total dwellings: 894 2032 Total dwellings: 875 2031 Total dwellings: 856 2030 Total dwellings: 837 2029 Total dwellings: 818 2028 Total dwellings: 799 2027 Total dwellings: 782 2026 Total dwellings: 765 2025 Total dwellings: 747 2024 Total dwellings: 729 2023 Total dwellings: 711 2022 Total dwellings: 693 2021 Total dwellings: 675 2020 Total dwellings: 657 2019 Total dwellings: 640 2018 Total dwellings: 625 2017 Total dwellings: 614 2016 Total dwellings: 602 2015 Total dwellings: 591 2014 Total dwellings: 579 2043 Total dwellings: 1,186 2042 Total dwellings: 1,141 2041 Total dwellings: 1,096 2040 Total dwellings: 1,056 2039 Total dwellings: 1,026 2038 Total dwellings: 996 2037 Total dwellings: 971 2036 Total dwellings: 951 2035 Total dwellings: 932 2034 Total dwellings: 913 2033 Total dwellings: 894 2032 Total dwellings: 875 2031 Total dwellings: 856 2030 Total dwellings: 837 2029 Total dwellings: 818 2028 Total dwellings: 799 2027 Total dwellings: 782 2026 Total dwellings: 765 2025 Total dwellings: 747 2024 Total dwellings: 729 2023 Total dwellings: 711 2022 Total dwellings: 693 2021 Total dwellings: 675 2020 Total dwellings: 657 2019 Total dwellings: 640 2018 Total dwellings: 625 2017 Total dwellings: 614 2016 Total dwellings: 602 2015 Total dwellings: 591 2014 Total dwellings: 579 2043 Forecast development: 45 2042 Forecast development: 45 2041 Forecast development: 40 2040 Forecast development: 30 2039 Forecast development: 30 2038 Forecast development: 25 2037 Forecast development: 20 2036 Forecast development: 19 2035 Forecast development: 19 2034 Forecast development: 19 2033 Forecast development: 19 2032 Forecast development: 19 2031 Forecast development: 19 2030 Forecast development: 19 2029 Forecast development: 19 2028 Forecast development: 17 2027 Forecast development: 17 2026 Forecast development: 18 2025 Forecast development: 18 2024 Forecast development: 18 2023 Forecast development: 18 2022 Forecast development: 18 2021 Forecast development: 18 2020 Forecast development: 17 2019 Forecast development: 15 2018 Forecast development: 11 2017 Forecast development: 12 2016 Forecast development: 11 2015 Forecast development: 12 2014 Forecast development: 10
    Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2018.
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