Wairarapa RegionPopulation forecast
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Carterton District Council

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Carterton District Council will increase by an average of 56 dwellings per annum to 5,384 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in the Wairarapa. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2006-2013 dwelling additions are based on dwelling counts recorded at the 2013 Census. Assumptions concerning development over the post 2013 period include:

  • Carterton North - 431 dwellings (2014-2043)
  • Carterton South - 589 dwellings (2014-2043)
  • Mount Holdsworth - Waingawa - 296 dwellings (2014-2043)
  • Te Wharau - 362 dwellings (2014-2043)
  • Forecast residential development
    Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 5,384 2042 Total dwellings: 5,329 2041 Total dwellings: 5,274 2040 Total dwellings: 5,219 2039 Total dwellings: 5,166 2038 Total dwellings: 5,113 2037 Total dwellings: 5,060 2036 Total dwellings: 5,007 2035 Total dwellings: 4,956 2034 Total dwellings: 4,905 2033 Total dwellings: 4,854 2032 Total dwellings: 4,803 2031 Total dwellings: 4,754 2030 Total dwellings: 4,705 2029 Total dwellings: 4,656 2028 Total dwellings: 4,607 2027 Total dwellings: 4,558 2026 Total dwellings: 4,507 2025 Total dwellings: 4,453 2024 Total dwellings: 4,394 2023 Total dwellings: 4,327 2022 Total dwellings: 4,265 2021 Total dwellings: 4,206 2020 Total dwellings: 4,152 2019 Total dwellings: 4,090 2018 Total dwellings: 4,034 2017 Total dwellings: 3,967 2016 Total dwellings: 3,902 2015 Total dwellings: 3,837 2014 Total dwellings: 3,770 2043 Total dwellings: 5,384 2042 Total dwellings: 5,329 2041 Total dwellings: 5,274 2040 Total dwellings: 5,219 2039 Total dwellings: 5,166 2038 Total dwellings: 5,113 2037 Total dwellings: 5,060 2036 Total dwellings: 5,007 2035 Total dwellings: 4,956 2034 Total dwellings: 4,905 2033 Total dwellings: 4,854 2032 Total dwellings: 4,803 2031 Total dwellings: 4,754 2030 Total dwellings: 4,705 2029 Total dwellings: 4,656 2028 Total dwellings: 4,607 2027 Total dwellings: 4,558 2026 Total dwellings: 4,507 2025 Total dwellings: 4,453 2024 Total dwellings: 4,394 2023 Total dwellings: 4,327 2022 Total dwellings: 4,265 2021 Total dwellings: 4,206 2020 Total dwellings: 4,152 2019 Total dwellings: 4,090 2018 Total dwellings: 4,034 2017 Total dwellings: 3,967 2016 Total dwellings: 3,902 2015 Total dwellings: 3,837 2014 Total dwellings: 3,770 2043 Forecast development: 55 2042 Forecast development: 55 2041 Forecast development: 55 2040 Forecast development: 53 2039 Forecast development: 53 2038 Forecast development: 53 2037 Forecast development: 53 2036 Forecast development: 51 2035 Forecast development: 51 2034 Forecast development: 51 2033 Forecast development: 51 2032 Forecast development: 49 2031 Forecast development: 49 2030 Forecast development: 49 2029 Forecast development: 49 2028 Forecast development: 49 2027 Forecast development: 51 2026 Forecast development: 54 2025 Forecast development: 59 2024 Forecast development: 67 2023 Forecast development: 62 2022 Forecast development: 59 2021 Forecast development: 54 2020 Forecast development: 62 2019 Forecast development: 56 2018 Forecast development: 67 2017 Forecast development: 65 2016 Forecast development: 65 2015 Forecast development: 67 2014 Forecast development: 64
    Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, March 2018.
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