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Ngaio - Crofton Downs

Components of population change

The greatest population change for Ngaio - Crofton Downs is forecast for the period from 2014 to 2018, which is expected to have a net increase of 564 people.

There are two ways in which populations can change, through net migration and/or through natural increase (births minus deaths). Some areas are more driven by one or other of these factors. Migration is largely driven by housing development, whereas natural increase is a function of the age of the population.

Components of population change
Ngaio - Crofton DownsForecast period
Component2014 to 20182019 to 20232024 to 20282029 to 20332034 to 20382039 to 2043
Births517515528542560586
Deaths165193217241264280
Natural increase/decrease352322311301296306
Net migration213131-395-442-271-214
Change in persons in non-private dwellings000000

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2016.

Forecast population change
Forecast population change 2043 forecast population change: 22 2042 forecast population change: 21 2041 forecast population change: 20 2040 forecast population change: 19 2039 forecast population change: 10 2038 forecast population change: 13 2037 forecast population change: 11 2036 forecast population change: 5 2035 forecast population change: 2 2034 forecast population change: -6 2033 forecast population change: -7 2032 forecast population change: -31 2031 forecast population change: -31 2030 forecast population change: -40 2029 forecast population change: -32 2028 forecast population change: -24 2027 forecast population change: -27 2026 forecast population change: -25 2025 forecast population change: -12 2024 forecast population change: 5 2023 forecast population change: 65 2022 forecast population change: 107 2021 forecast population change: 91 2020 forecast population change: 98 2019 forecast population change: 92 2018 forecast population change: 92 2017 forecast population change: 87 2016 forecast population change: 203 2015 forecast population change: 92 2014 forecast population change: 90
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2016.
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease
Forecast births, deaths and natural increase/decrease 2043 Natural increase: 62 2042 Natural increase: 62 2041 Natural increase: 62 2040 Natural increase: 61 2039 Natural increase: 60 2038 Natural increase: 59 2037 Natural increase: 58 2036 Natural increase: 60 2035 Natural increase: 60 2034 Natural increase: 60 2033 Natural increase: 60 2032 Natural increase: 60 2031 Natural increase: 60 2030 Natural increase: 60 2029 Natural increase: 61 2028 Natural increase: 62 2027 Natural increase: 62 2026 Natural increase: 62 2025 Natural increase: 62 2024 Natural increase: 64 2023 Natural increase: 64 2022 Natural increase: 64 2021 Natural increase: 64 2020 Natural increase: 64 2019 Natural increase: 66 2018 Natural increase: 66 2017 Natural increase: 67 2016 Natural increase: 68 2015 Natural increase: 73 2014 Natural increase: 78 2043 Total deaths: 57 2042 Total deaths: 57 2041 Total deaths: 56 2040 Total deaths: 55 2039 Total deaths: 55 2038 Total deaths: 55 2037 Total deaths: 54 2036 Total deaths: 52 2035 Total deaths: 51 2034 Total deaths: 51 2033 Total deaths: 50 2032 Total deaths: 49 2031 Total deaths: 48 2030 Total deaths: 47 2029 Total deaths: 46 2028 Total deaths: 45 2027 Total deaths: 44 2026 Total deaths: 43 2025 Total deaths: 43 2024 Total deaths: 42 2023 Total deaths: 41 2022 Total deaths: 40 2021 Total deaths: 38 2020 Total deaths: 38 2019 Total deaths: 37 2018 Total deaths: 36 2017 Total deaths: 35 2016 Total deaths: 33 2015 Total deaths: 32 2014 Total deaths: 30 2043 Total births: 119 2042 Total births: 118 2041 Total births: 117 2040 Total births: 116 2039 Total births: 115 2038 Total births: 114 2037 Total births: 113 2036 Total births: 112 2035 Total births: 111 2034 Total births: 110 2033 Total births: 109 2032 Total births: 109 2031 Total births: 109 2030 Total births: 108 2029 Total births: 107 2028 Total births: 107 2027 Total births: 106 2026 Total births: 105 2025 Total births: 105 2024 Total births: 106 2023 Total births: 105 2022 Total births: 103 2021 Total births: 103 2020 Total births: 102 2019 Total births: 102 2018 Total births: 102 2017 Total births: 102 2016 Total births: 101 2015 Total births: 104 2014 Total births: 108 2043 Natural increase: 62 2042 Natural increase: 62 2041 Natural increase: 62 2040 Natural increase: 61 2039 Natural increase: 60 2038 Natural increase: 59 2037 Natural increase: 58 2036 Natural increase: 60 2035 Natural increase: 60 2034 Natural increase: 60 2033 Natural increase: 60 2032 Natural increase: 60 2031 Natural increase: 60 2030 Natural increase: 60 2029 Natural increase: 61 2028 Natural increase: 62 2027 Natural increase: 62 2026 Natural increase: 62 2025 Natural increase: 62 2024 Natural increase: 64 2023 Natural increase: 64 2022 Natural increase: 64 2021 Natural increase: 64 2020 Natural increase: 64 2019 Natural increase: 66 2018 Natural increase: 66 2017 Natural increase: 67 2016 Natural increase: 68 2015 Natural increase: 73 2014 Natural increase: 78 2043 Total deaths: 57 2042 Total deaths: 57 2041 Total deaths: 56 2040 Total deaths: 55 2039 Total deaths: 55 2038 Total deaths: 55 2037 Total deaths: 54 2036 Total deaths: 52 2035 Total deaths: 51 2034 Total deaths: 51 2033 Total deaths: 50 2032 Total deaths: 49 2031 Total deaths: 48 2030 Total deaths: 47 2029 Total deaths: 46 2028 Total deaths: 45 2027 Total deaths: 44 2026 Total deaths: 43 2025 Total deaths: 43 2024 Total deaths: 42 2023 Total deaths: 41 2022 Total deaths: 40 2021 Total deaths: 38 2020 Total deaths: 38 2019 Total deaths: 37 2018 Total deaths: 36 2017 Total deaths: 35 2016 Total deaths: 33 2015 Total deaths: 32 2014 Total deaths: 30 2043 Total births: 119 2042 Total births: 118 2041 Total births: 117 2040 Total births: 116 2039 Total births: 115 2038 Total births: 114 2037 Total births: 113 2036 Total births: 112 2035 Total births: 111 2034 Total births: 110 2033 Total births: 109 2032 Total births: 109 2031 Total births: 109 2030 Total births: 108 2029 Total births: 107 2028 Total births: 107 2027 Total births: 106 2026 Total births: 105 2025 Total births: 105 2024 Total births: 106 2023 Total births: 105 2022 Total births: 103 2021 Total births: 103 2020 Total births: 102 2019 Total births: 102 2018 Total births: 102 2017 Total births: 102 2016 Total births: 101 2015 Total births: 104 2014 Total births: 108
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2016.
Forecast in, out and net migration
Forecast in, out and net migration 2043 Total net migration: -40 2042 Total net migration: -41 2041 Total net migration: -41 2040 Total net migration: -42 2039 Total net migration: -50 2038 Total net migration: -46 2037 Total net migration: -47 2036 Total net migration: -55 2035 Total net migration: -58 2034 Total net migration: -66 2033 Total net migration: -66 2032 Total net migration: -91 2031 Total net migration: -91 2030 Total net migration: -100 2029 Total net migration: -93 2028 Total net migration: -86 2027 Total net migration: -89 2026 Total net migration: -87 2025 Total net migration: -74 2024 Total net migration: -59 2023 Total net migration: 1 2022 Total net migration: 43 2021 Total net migration: 27 2020 Total net migration: 34 2019 Total net migration: 26 2018 Total net migration: 25 2017 Total net migration: 20 2016 Total net migration: 135 2015 Total net migration: 19 2014 Total net migration: 13 2043 Total out migration: 701 2042 Total out migration: 698 2041 Total out migration: 695 2040 Total out migration: 692 2039 Total out migration: 690 2038 Total out migration: 687 2037 Total out migration: 684 2036 Total out migration: 682 2035 Total out migration: 680 2034 Total out migration: 679 2033 Total out migration: 678 2032 Total out migration: 679 2031 Total out migration: 681 2030 Total out migration: 683 2029 Total out migration: 686 2028 Total out migration: 687 2027 Total out migration: 689 2026 Total out migration: 691 2025 Total out migration: 693 2024 Total out migration: 694 2023 Total out migration: 689 2022 Total out migration: 680 2021 Total out migration: 672 2020 Total out migration: 666 2019 Total out migration: 659 2018 Total out migration: 654 2017 Total out migration: 651 2016 Total out migration: 638 2015 Total out migration: 636 2014 Total out migration: 638 2043 Total in migration: 662 2042 Total in migration: 658 2041 Total in migration: 654 2040 Total in migration: 650 2039 Total in migration: 640 2038 Total in migration: 641 2037 Total in migration: 637 2036 Total in migration: 627 2035 Total in migration: 622 2034 Total in migration: 613 2033 Total in migration: 612 2032 Total in migration: 588 2031 Total in migration: 589 2030 Total in migration: 583 2029 Total in migration: 592 2028 Total in migration: 601 2027 Total in migration: 601 2026 Total in migration: 605 2025 Total in migration: 619 2024 Total in migration: 635 2023 Total in migration: 690 2022 Total in migration: 723 2021 Total in migration: 699 2020 Total in migration: 700 2019 Total in migration: 686 2018 Total in migration: 680 2017 Total in migration: 671 2016 Total in migration: 773 2015 Total in migration: 655 2014 Total in migration: 650 2043 Total net migration: -40 2042 Total net migration: -41 2041 Total net migration: -41 2040 Total net migration: -42 2039 Total net migration: -50 2038 Total net migration: -46 2037 Total net migration: -47 2036 Total net migration: -55 2035 Total net migration: -58 2034 Total net migration: -66 2033 Total net migration: -66 2032 Total net migration: -91 2031 Total net migration: -91 2030 Total net migration: -100 2029 Total net migration: -93 2028 Total net migration: -86 2027 Total net migration: -89 2026 Total net migration: -87 2025 Total net migration: -74 2024 Total net migration: -59 2023 Total net migration: 1 2022 Total net migration: 43 2021 Total net migration: 27 2020 Total net migration: 34 2019 Total net migration: 26 2018 Total net migration: 25 2017 Total net migration: 20 2016 Total net migration: 135 2015 Total net migration: 19 2014 Total net migration: 13 2043 Total out migration: 701 2042 Total out migration: 698 2041 Total out migration: 695 2040 Total out migration: 692 2039 Total out migration: 690 2038 Total out migration: 687 2037 Total out migration: 684 2036 Total out migration: 682 2035 Total out migration: 680 2034 Total out migration: 679 2033 Total out migration: 678 2032 Total out migration: 679 2031 Total out migration: 681 2030 Total out migration: 683 2029 Total out migration: 686 2028 Total out migration: 687 2027 Total out migration: 689 2026 Total out migration: 691 2025 Total out migration: 693 2024 Total out migration: 694 2023 Total out migration: 689 2022 Total out migration: 680 2021 Total out migration: 672 2020 Total out migration: 666 2019 Total out migration: 659 2018 Total out migration: 654 2017 Total out migration: 651 2016 Total out migration: 638 2015 Total out migration: 636 2014 Total out migration: 638 2043 Total in migration: 662 2042 Total in migration: 658 2041 Total in migration: 654 2040 Total in migration: 650 2039 Total in migration: 640 2038 Total in migration: 641 2037 Total in migration: 637 2036 Total in migration: 627 2035 Total in migration: 622 2034 Total in migration: 613 2033 Total in migration: 612 2032 Total in migration: 588 2031 Total in migration: 589 2030 Total in migration: 583 2029 Total in migration: 592 2028 Total in migration: 601 2027 Total in migration: 601 2026 Total in migration: 605 2025 Total in migration: 619 2024 Total in migration: 635 2023 Total in migration: 690 2022 Total in migration: 723 2021 Total in migration: 699 2020 Total in migration: 700 2019 Total in migration: 686 2018 Total in migration: 680 2017 Total in migration: 671 2016 Total in migration: 773 2015 Total in migration: 655 2014 Total in migration: 650
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2016.
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