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Wellington CityPopulation forecast

Southgate - Houghton Bay - Melrose

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Southgate - Houghton Bay - Melrose indicate a 33.4% decrease in population under working age, a 97.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 9.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Southgate - Houghton Bay - Melrose is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Southgate - Houghton Bay - Melrose - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42666.82265.32495.8-17
5 to 92566.51613.81794.1-77
10 to 142686.81393.31443.3-124
15 to 192025.12465.82165.0+14
20 to 242235.74079.63658.4+142
25 to 292977.645210.74309.9+134
30 to 343148.03638.54109.5+96
35 to 393398.63037.13668.5+27
40 to 443408.72806.63137.2-27
45 to 493619.22816.62816.5-80
50 to 543318.42525.92375.5-94
55 to 592165.52415.72114.9-5
60 to 641784.62465.81954.5+17
65 to 691303.32225.21764.1+46
70 to 74782.01553.61673.9+89
75 to 79651.71253.01643.8+99
80 to 84350.9852.01333.1+98
85 and over200.5621.5922.1+71
Total persons3,920100.04,248100.04,329100.0+409
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, November 2019.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Southgate - Houghton Bay - Melrose was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 9.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 20 to 24, which is expected to increase by 184 and account for 9.6% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 452 persons.

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