Wellington CityPopulation forecast
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Island Bay - Owhiro Bay

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Island Bay - Owhiro Bay indicate a 24.7% decrease in population under working age, a 96.8% increase in population of retirement age, and a 2.7% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Wellington City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Island Bay - Owhiro Bay - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 46657.65546.05706.1-94
5 to 96947.94805.25155.5-178
10 to 145506.34044.44104.4-140
15 to 195215.94154.53453.7-176
20 to 245105.86266.85656.0+55
25 to 295346.18288.98559.1+320
30 to 346247.18509.28759.4+250
35 to 397478.57207.87397.9-8
40 to 447979.15365.85545.9-243
45 to 497818.94915.34815.1-300
50 to 546877.85546.04534.8-234
55 to 594765.46116.64554.9-21
60 to 644024.66136.64705.0+69
65 to 692673.05255.74965.3+229
70 to 741882.13884.25065.4+317
75 to 791431.63113.44655.0+322
80 to 841071.21962.13493.7+242
85 and over981.11601.72512.7+152
Total persons8,791100.09,261100.09,353100.0+562

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 251 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 349 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 465 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 506 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 496 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 470 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 455 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 453 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 481 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 554 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 739 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 875 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 855 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 565 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 345 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 410 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 515 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 570 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 160 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 196 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 311 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 388 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 525 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 613 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 611 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 554 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 491 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 536 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 720 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 850 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 828 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 626 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 415 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 404 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 480 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 554 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 98 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 107 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 143 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 188 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 267 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 402 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 476 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 687 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 781 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 797 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 747 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 624 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 534 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 510 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 521 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 550 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 694 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 665
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 91 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 153 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 153 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 118 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -29 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -142 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: -156 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: -101 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: -10 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 18 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 20 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 24 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: 27 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: -61 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -70 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 6 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: 35 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 16 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 61 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 88 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 169 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 199 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 258 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 211 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: 135 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -133 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -290 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -261 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: -28 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 226 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 294 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: 117 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -106 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -146 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: -213 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -111
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Island Bay - Owhiro Bay was ages 40 to 44, which accounted for 9.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 25 to 29, which is expected to increase by 294 and account for 8.9% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 850 persons.

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