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Wellington CityPopulation forecast

Island Bay - Owhiro Bay

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Island Bay - Owhiro Bay indicate a 21.9% decrease in population under working age, a 99.1% increase in population of retirement age, and a 6.3% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Island Bay - Owhiro Bay is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Island Bay - Owhiro Bay - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 46657.65786.05876.1-78
5 to 96947.94975.25325.5-161
10 to 145506.34154.34254.4-125
15 to 195215.94244.43573.7-164
20 to 245105.86486.85816.0+72
25 to 295346.18799.28789.1+344
30 to 346247.18999.48999.3+274
35 to 397478.57477.87617.9+14
40 to 447979.15545.85746.0-223
45 to 497818.95025.35005.2-281
50 to 546877.85655.94684.9-219
55 to 594765.46226.54694.9-7
60 to 644024.66236.54835.0+81
65 to 692673.05335.65085.3+241
70 to 741882.13934.15175.4+328
75 to 791431.63143.34744.9+331
80 to 841071.21982.13553.7+248
85 and over981.11611.72552.6+156
Total persons8,791100.09,551100.09,622100.0+831
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2020.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Island Bay - Owhiro Bay was ages 40 to 44, which accounted for 9.1% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 25 to 29, which is expected to increase by 345 and account for 9.2% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 899 persons.

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