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Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Island Bay - Owhiro Bay indicate a 21.9% decrease in males under working age, a 121.7% increase in males of retirement age, and a 14.1% increase in males of working age.
Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.
The forecast age groups of Island Bay - Owhiro Bay is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.
|Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups|
|Island Bay - Owhiro Bay - Total males||2013||2028||2043||Change between 2013 and 2043|
|Age group (years)||Number||%||Number||%||Number||%||Number|
|0 to 4||343||8.1||295||6.1||299||6.0||-43|
|5 to 9||354||8.3||251||5.2||269||5.4||-85|
|10 to 14||288||6.8||223||4.6||230||4.6||-58|
|15 to 19||279||6.6||252||5.2||221||4.4||-58|
|20 to 24||256||6.0||354||7.3||328||6.6||+72|
|25 to 29||268||6.3||457||9.4||464||9.3||+196|
|30 to 34||276||6.5||484||10.0||492||9.8||+216|
|35 to 39||348||8.2||412||8.5||431||8.6||+83|
|40 to 44||376||8.8||296||6.1||318||6.4||-58|
|45 to 49||374||8.8||240||4.9||266||5.3||-108|
|50 to 54||336||7.9||267||5.5||241||4.8||-96|
|55 to 59||229||5.4||292||6.0||234||4.7||+5|
|60 to 64||195||4.6||298||6.1||231||4.6||+36|
|65 to 69||129||3.0||256||5.3||241||4.8||+111|
|70 to 74||85||2.0||185||3.8||242||4.8||+158|
|75 to 79||59||1.4||144||3.0||219||4.4||+161|
|80 to 84||39||0.9||88||1.8||163||3.3||+124|
|85 and over||20||0.5||63||1.3||110||2.2||+90|
In 2013, the dominant age structure for males in Island Bay - Owhiro Bay was ages 40 to 44, which accounted for 8.8% of the total males.
The largest increase in males between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 30 to 34, which is expected to increase by 207 and account for 10.0% of the total males.
The largest male 5 year age group in 2028 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 484 males.
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