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Wellington CityPopulation forecast

Island Bay - Owhiro Bay

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Island Bay - Owhiro Bay indicate a 21.9% decrease in males under working age, a 121.7% increase in males of retirement age, and a 14.1% increase in males of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Island Bay - Owhiro Bay is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Island Bay - Owhiro Bay - Total males201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 43438.12956.12996.0-43
5 to 93548.32515.22695.4-85
10 to 142886.82234.62304.6-58
15 to 192796.62525.22214.4-58
20 to 242566.03547.33286.6+72
25 to 292686.34579.44649.3+196
30 to 342766.548410.04929.8+216
35 to 393488.24128.54318.6+83
40 to 443768.82966.13186.4-58
45 to 493748.82404.92665.3-108
50 to 543367.92675.52414.8-96
55 to 592295.42926.02344.7+5
60 to 641954.62986.12314.6+36
65 to 691293.02565.32414.8+111
70 to 74852.01853.82424.8+158
75 to 79591.41443.02194.4+161
80 to 84390.9881.81633.3+124
85 and over200.5631.31102.2+90
Total persons4,253100.04,856100.04,998100.0+745
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2020.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for males in Island Bay - Owhiro Bay was ages 40 to 44, which accounted for 8.8% of the total males.

The largest increase in males between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 30 to 34, which is expected to increase by 207 and account for 10.0% of the total males.

The largest male 5 year age group in 2028 is 30 to 34 years, with a total of 484 males.

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