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Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Kelburn indicate a 0.9% decrease in females under working age, a 131.0% increase in females of retirement age, and a 2.1% increase in females of working age.
Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.
The forecast age groups of Kelburn is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.
|Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups|
|Kelburn - Total females||2013||2028||2043||Change between 2013 and 2043|
|Age group (years)||Number||%||Number||%||Number||%||Number|
|0 to 4||55||2.3||79||3.0||62||2.3||+7|
|5 to 9||75||3.1||69||2.6||55||2.1||-20|
|10 to 14||83||3.4||63||2.4||51||1.9||-31|
|15 to 19||595||24.8||564||21.4||573||21.5||-22|
|20 to 24||486||20.3||400||15.1||534||20.0||+49|
|25 to 29||206||8.6||267||10.1||329||12.3||+123|
|30 to 34||129||5.4||190||7.2||174||6.5||+45|
|35 to 39||90||3.7||144||5.4||108||4.0||+18|
|40 to 44||95||4.0||93||3.5||79||3.0||-16|
|45 to 49||117||4.9||92||3.5||84||3.2||-32|
|50 to 54||120||5.0||95||3.6||88||3.3||-32|
|55 to 59||108||4.5||110||4.2||85||3.2||-24|
|60 to 64||84||3.5||117||4.4||82||3.1||-2|
|65 to 69||74||3.1||112||4.3||81||3.1||+7|
|70 to 74||33||1.4||94||3.6||82||3.1||+49|
|75 to 79||21||0.9||72||2.7||80||3.0||+59|
|80 to 84||22||0.9||52||2.0||67||2.5||+45|
|85 and over||5||0.2||28||1.1||50||1.9||+45|
In 2013, the dominant age structure for females in Kelburn was ages 15 to 19, which accounted for 24.8% of the total females.
The largest increase in females between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 25 to 29, which is expected to increase by 61 and account for 10.1% of the total females.
The largest female 5 year age group in 2028 is 15 to 19 years, with a total of 564 females.
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