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Wellington CityPopulation forecast

Ngaio - Crofton Downs

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Ngaio - Crofton Downs indicate a 1.8% increase in population under working age, a 112.6% increase in population of retirement age, and a 3.1% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Ngaio - Crofton Downs is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Ngaio - Crofton Downs - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 46478.85907.16407.7-8
5 to 96128.36377.66297.6+17
10 to 145337.25987.25416.5+9
15 to 193915.35736.95036.1+111
20 to 243464.75416.55716.9+225
25 to 293464.75376.46117.4+265
30 to 344706.45046.15787.0+108
35 to 396739.14705.65076.1-166
40 to 447139.64064.94185.0-295
45 to 496338.64395.33814.6-252
50 to 545918.05346.43784.5-213
55 to 594305.85666.83874.7-42
60 to 643444.65216.24155.0+71
65 to 692863.94765.74495.4+163
70 to 741782.43624.34375.3+259
75 to 79981.32683.23724.5+274
80 to 84560.81882.32903.5+233
85 and over490.71241.52002.4+152
Total persons7,394100.08,334100.08,306100.0+912
Source: Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id (informed decisions), December 2020.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Ngaio - Crofton Downs was ages 40 to 44, which accounted for 9.6% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 20 to 24, which is expected to increase by 195 and account for 6.5% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 5 to 9 years, with a total of 637 persons.

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