Wellington CityPopulation forecast
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Seatoun - Karaka Bays - Breaker Bay

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Seatoun - Karaka Bays - Breaker Bay indicate a 22.3% decrease in population under working age, a 61.7% increase in population of retirement age, and a 2.2% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Wellington City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Seatoun - Karaka Bays - Breaker Bay - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42556.72045.12125.2-43
5 to 92897.62466.22586.4-31
10 to 143148.32175.52225.5-92
15 to 192516.61944.91604.0-91
20 to 241403.71313.31052.6-34
25 to 291102.91654.21273.2+18
30 to 341503.91975.01994.9+49
35 to 392195.82736.92927.2+73
40 to 443258.53298.33558.8+31
45 to 493739.83508.83679.1-6
50 to 5439910.53087.83248.0-75
55 to 592757.22897.32867.1+10
60 to 642155.72766.92566.3+41
65 to 691694.52656.72235.5+53
70 to 741002.61924.82035.0+103
75 to 79942.51443.61834.5+89
80 to 84541.41042.61543.8+100
85 and over711.9842.11172.9+46
Total persons3,802100.03,969100.04,042100.0+240

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 117 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 154 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 183 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 203 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 223 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 256 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 286 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 324 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 367 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 355 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 292 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 199 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 127 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 105 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 160 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 222 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 258 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 212 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 84 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 104 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 144 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 192 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 265 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 276 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 289 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 308 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 350 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 329 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 273 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 197 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 165 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 131 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 194 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 217 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 246 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 204 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 71 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 54 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 94 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 100 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 169 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 215 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 275 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 399 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 373 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 325 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 219 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 150 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 110 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 140 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 251 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 314 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 289 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 255
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 33 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 50 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 39 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 11 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -42 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -19 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: -3 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: 15 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 17 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 26 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 19 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 3 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: -38 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: -26 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -34 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 5 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: 11 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 7 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 13 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 50 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 50 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 92 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 96 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 61 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: 14 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -90 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -23 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: 5 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: 54 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 47 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 55 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: -9 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: -57 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -97 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: -43 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -50
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Seatoun - Karaka Bays - Breaker Bay was ages 50 to 54, which accounted for 10.5% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 65 to 69, which is expected to increase by 96 and account for 6.7% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 45 to 49 years, with a total of 350 persons.

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