Wellington CityPopulation forecast
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Southgate - Houghton Bay - Melrose

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure forecasts for Southgate - Houghton Bay - Melrose indicate a 33.4% decrease in population under working age, a 97.9% increase in population of retirement age, and a 9.6% increase in population of working age.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Wellington City is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Southgate - Houghton Bay - Melrose - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
0 to 42666.82265.32495.8-17
5 to 92566.51613.81794.1-77
10 to 142686.81393.31443.3-124
15 to 192025.12465.82165.0+14
20 to 242235.74079.63658.4+142
25 to 292977.645210.74309.9+134
30 to 343148.03638.54109.5+96
35 to 393398.63037.13668.5+27
40 to 443408.72806.63137.2-27
45 to 493619.22816.62816.5-80
50 to 543318.42525.92375.5-94
55 to 592165.52415.72114.9-5
60 to 641784.62465.81954.5+17
65 to 691303.32225.21764.1+46
70 to 74782.01553.61673.9+89
75 to 79651.71253.01643.8+99
80 to 84350.9852.01333.1+98
85 and over200.5621.5922.1+71
Total persons3,920100.04,248100.04,329100.0+409

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, July 2016.

Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 92 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2043: 133 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2043: 164 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2043: 167 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2043: 176 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2043: 195 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2043: 211 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2043: 237 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2043: 281 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2043: 313 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2043: 366 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2043: 410 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2043: 430 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2043: 365 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2043: 216 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2043: 144 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2043: 179 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 249 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 62 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028: 85 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028: 125 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028: 155 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028: 222 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028: 246 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028: 241 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028: 252 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028: 281 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028: 280 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028: 303 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028: 363 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028: 452 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028: 407 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028: 246 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028: 139 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028: 161 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 226 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 20 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013: 35 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013: 65 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013: 78 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013: 130 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013: 178 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013: 216 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013: 331 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013: 361 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013: 340 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013: 339 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013: 314 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013: 297 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013: 223 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013: 202 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013: 268 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013: 256 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 266
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups
Forecast change in age structure - 5 year age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 30 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2028 to 2043: 48 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2028 to 2043: 39 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2028 to 2043: 12 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2028 to 2043: -47 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2028 to 2043: -51 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2028 to 2043: -30 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2028 to 2043: -15 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2028 to 2043: 0 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2028 to 2043: 33 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2028 to 2043: 62 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2028 to 2043: 47 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2028 to 2043: -22 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2028 to 2043: -42 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2028 to 2043: -31 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2028 to 2043: 6 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2028 to 2043: 18 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 23 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 42 Forecast persons aged 80-84,  2013 to 2028: 50 Forecast persons aged 75-79,  2013 to 2028: 60 Forecast persons aged 70-74,  2013 to 2028: 77 Forecast persons aged 65-69,  2013 to 2028: 93 Forecast persons aged 60-64,  2013 to 2028: 68 Forecast persons aged 55-59,  2013 to 2028: 25 Forecast persons aged 50-54,  2013 to 2028: -79 Forecast persons aged 45-49,  2013 to 2028: -80 Forecast persons aged 40-44,  2013 to 2028: -60 Forecast persons aged 35-39,  2013 to 2028: -36 Forecast persons aged 30-34,  2013 to 2028: 49 Forecast persons aged 25-29,  2013 to 2028: 156 Forecast persons aged 20-24,  2013 to 2028: 184 Forecast persons aged 15-19,  2013 to 2028: 44 Forecast persons aged 10-14,  2013 to 2028: -130 Forecast persons aged 5-9,  2013 to 2028: -95 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -40
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2016.

Key findings

In 2013, the dominant age structure for persons in Southgate - Houghton Bay - Melrose was ages 45 to 49, which accounted for 9.2% of the total persons.

The largest increase in persons between 2013 and 2028 is forecast to be in ages 20 to 24, which is expected to increase by 184 and account for 9.6% of the total persons.

The largest 5 year age group in 2028 is 25 to 29 years, with a total of 452 persons.

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