Wellington CityPopulation forecast
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Churton Park - Glenside

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Churton Park - Glenside will increase by an average of 44 dwellings per annum to 3,679 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Wellington City. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2013-2016 dwelling additions are based on an assessment of major site activity and building approvals, lagged by 12-18 months. Assumptions concerning development over the forecast period include:

  • Stebbings Valley - 208 dwellings (2014-2025)
  • Lower Stebbings Valley future greenflield - 600 dwellings (2016-2027)
  • Upper Stebbings Valley greenfield - 180 dwellings (2023-2043)
  • Glenside greenfield - 170 dwellings (2025-2043)
  • Small sites - 4 dwellings
  • Low level of infill development (3-10 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 3,679 2042 Total dwellings: 3,659 2041 Total dwellings: 3,638 2040 Total dwellings: 3,616 2039 Total dwellings: 3,594 2038 Total dwellings: 3,568 2037 Total dwellings: 3,544 2036 Total dwellings: 3,518 2035 Total dwellings: 3,492 2034 Total dwellings: 3,468 2033 Total dwellings: 3,445 2032 Total dwellings: 3,422 2031 Total dwellings: 3,398 2030 Total dwellings: 3,376 2029 Total dwellings: 3,354 2028 Total dwellings: 3,332 2027 Total dwellings: 3,310 2026 Total dwellings: 3,273 2025 Total dwellings: 3,195 2024 Total dwellings: 3,103 2023 Total dwellings: 3,009 2022 Total dwellings: 2,919 2021 Total dwellings: 2,834 2020 Total dwellings: 2,754 2019 Total dwellings: 2,676 2018 Total dwellings: 2,594 2017 Total dwellings: 2,535 2016 Total dwellings: 2,477 2015 Total dwellings: 2,427 2014 Total dwellings: 2,383 2043 Total dwellings: 3,679 2042 Total dwellings: 3,659 2041 Total dwellings: 3,638 2040 Total dwellings: 3,616 2039 Total dwellings: 3,594 2038 Total dwellings: 3,568 2037 Total dwellings: 3,544 2036 Total dwellings: 3,518 2035 Total dwellings: 3,492 2034 Total dwellings: 3,468 2033 Total dwellings: 3,445 2032 Total dwellings: 3,422 2031 Total dwellings: 3,398 2030 Total dwellings: 3,376 2029 Total dwellings: 3,354 2028 Total dwellings: 3,332 2027 Total dwellings: 3,310 2026 Total dwellings: 3,273 2025 Total dwellings: 3,195 2024 Total dwellings: 3,103 2023 Total dwellings: 3,009 2022 Total dwellings: 2,919 2021 Total dwellings: 2,834 2020 Total dwellings: 2,754 2019 Total dwellings: 2,676 2018 Total dwellings: 2,594 2017 Total dwellings: 2,535 2016 Total dwellings: 2,477 2015 Total dwellings: 2,427 2014 Total dwellings: 2,383 2043 Forecast development: 20 2042 Forecast development: 21 2041 Forecast development: 22 2040 Forecast development: 22 2039 Forecast development: 26 2038 Forecast development: 24 2037 Forecast development: 26 2036 Forecast development: 26 2035 Forecast development: 24 2034 Forecast development: 23 2033 Forecast development: 23 2032 Forecast development: 24 2031 Forecast development: 22 2030 Forecast development: 22 2029 Forecast development: 22 2028 Forecast development: 22 2027 Forecast development: 37 2026 Forecast development: 78 2025 Forecast development: 92 2024 Forecast development: 94 2023 Forecast development: 90 2022 Forecast development: 85 2021 Forecast development: 80 2020 Forecast development: 78 2019 Forecast development: 82 2018 Forecast development: 59 2017 Forecast development: 58 2016 Forecast development: 50 2015 Forecast development: 44 2014 Forecast development: 27
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2016.
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