Wellington CityPopulation forecast
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Karori

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Karori will increase by an average of 20 dwellings per annum to 6,216 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Wellington City. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2013-2016 dwelling additions are based on an assessment of major site activity and building approvals, lagged by 12-18 months. Assumptions concerning development over the forecast period include:

  • 55-85 Curtis Street - 27 dwellings (2019-2022)
  • 90 Percy Dyett Drive - 10 dwellings (2022-2025)
  • Low-moderate level of infill development (6-16 dwellings per annum)
  • Low-moderate level of activity centre development (0-17 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 6,216 2042 Total dwellings: 6,193 2041 Total dwellings: 6,170 2040 Total dwellings: 6,147 2039 Total dwellings: 6,124 2038 Total dwellings: 6,101 2037 Total dwellings: 6,078 2036 Total dwellings: 6,055 2035 Total dwellings: 6,032 2034 Total dwellings: 6,009 2033 Total dwellings: 5,985 2032 Total dwellings: 5,961 2031 Total dwellings: 5,937 2030 Total dwellings: 5,915 2029 Total dwellings: 5,893 2028 Total dwellings: 5,870 2027 Total dwellings: 5,847 2026 Total dwellings: 5,824 2025 Total dwellings: 5,804 2024 Total dwellings: 5,782 2023 Total dwellings: 5,767 2022 Total dwellings: 5,756 2021 Total dwellings: 5,742 2020 Total dwellings: 5,725 2019 Total dwellings: 5,708 2018 Total dwellings: 5,690 2017 Total dwellings: 5,678 2016 Total dwellings: 5,663 2015 Total dwellings: 5,647 2014 Total dwellings: 5,635 2043 Total dwellings: 6,216 2042 Total dwellings: 6,193 2041 Total dwellings: 6,170 2040 Total dwellings: 6,147 2039 Total dwellings: 6,124 2038 Total dwellings: 6,101 2037 Total dwellings: 6,078 2036 Total dwellings: 6,055 2035 Total dwellings: 6,032 2034 Total dwellings: 6,009 2033 Total dwellings: 5,985 2032 Total dwellings: 5,961 2031 Total dwellings: 5,937 2030 Total dwellings: 5,915 2029 Total dwellings: 5,893 2028 Total dwellings: 5,870 2027 Total dwellings: 5,847 2026 Total dwellings: 5,824 2025 Total dwellings: 5,804 2024 Total dwellings: 5,782 2023 Total dwellings: 5,767 2022 Total dwellings: 5,756 2021 Total dwellings: 5,742 2020 Total dwellings: 5,725 2019 Total dwellings: 5,708 2018 Total dwellings: 5,690 2017 Total dwellings: 5,678 2016 Total dwellings: 5,663 2015 Total dwellings: 5,647 2014 Total dwellings: 5,635 2043 Forecast development: 23 2042 Forecast development: 23 2041 Forecast development: 23 2040 Forecast development: 23 2039 Forecast development: 23 2038 Forecast development: 23 2037 Forecast development: 23 2036 Forecast development: 23 2035 Forecast development: 23 2034 Forecast development: 24 2033 Forecast development: 24 2032 Forecast development: 24 2031 Forecast development: 22 2030 Forecast development: 22 2029 Forecast development: 23 2028 Forecast development: 23 2027 Forecast development: 23 2026 Forecast development: 20 2025 Forecast development: 22 2024 Forecast development: 15 2023 Forecast development: 11 2022 Forecast development: 14 2021 Forecast development: 17 2020 Forecast development: 17 2019 Forecast development: 18 2018 Forecast development: 12 2017 Forecast development: 15 2016 Forecast development: 16 2015 Forecast development: 12 2014 Forecast development: 12
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2016.
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