Wellington CityPopulation forecast
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Tawa - Grenada North - Takapu Valley

Residential development

Residential development forecasts assume the number of dwellings in Tawa - Grenada North - Takapu Valley will increase by an average of 43 dwellings per annum to 6,490 in 2043.

The addition of dwellings to the housing stock is a major driver of population growth in an area, providing opportunities for households to relocate from other areas or new households to form locally (such as young people leaving the family home or separations/divorces).

Residential development can take various forms depending on the availability of land. These include new housing estates on greenfield sites, subdivision in existing residential neighbourhoods (often called infill development), conversion of industrial lands to residential lands, and densification of housing by building up.

.id's forecasters worked with Council planners to understand the likely development activity in each small area. This forms the development assumptions for the forecasts. This table shows the quantity of new development assumed in each small area in Wellington City. Select each small area to see detailed assumptions.

List of forecast land developments and infill assumptions:

2013-2016 dwelling additions are based on an assessment of major site activity and building approvals, lagged by 12-18 months. Assumptions concerning development over the forecast period include:

  • 83 Seatoun Heights Road - 15 dwellings (2014-2018)
  • Mervyn Kemp Drive - 15 dwellings (2014-2018)
  • Mark Avenue - 73 dwellings (2014-2023)
  • Jamaica Drive - 16 dwellings (2019-2023)
  • 7 Handyside Street - 15 dwellings (2021)
  • Lincolnshire Farm/Urban Development Area greenfield - 366 dwellings (2021-2043)
  • 4 William Earp Place - 30 dwellings (2023-2024)
  • Western slope of Tawa greenfield - 150 dwellings (2028-2043)
  • Upper Stebbings Valley greenfield - 112 dwellings (2028-2043)
  • Low-moderate level of infill development (5-14 dwellings per annum)
  • Low-moderate level of activity centre development (0-20 dwellings per annum)
Forecast residential development
Forecast residential development 2043 Total dwellings: 6,490 2042 Total dwellings: 6,425 2041 Total dwellings: 6,359 2040 Total dwellings: 6,293 2039 Total dwellings: 6,227 2038 Total dwellings: 6,160 2037 Total dwellings: 6,092 2036 Total dwellings: 6,026 2035 Total dwellings: 5,967 2034 Total dwellings: 5,909 2033 Total dwellings: 5,852 2032 Total dwellings: 5,797 2031 Total dwellings: 5,743 2030 Total dwellings: 5,697 2029 Total dwellings: 5,651 2028 Total dwellings: 5,609 2027 Total dwellings: 5,568 2026 Total dwellings: 5,540 2025 Total dwellings: 5,516 2024 Total dwellings: 5,493 2023 Total dwellings: 5,451 2022 Total dwellings: 5,418 2021 Total dwellings: 5,393 2020 Total dwellings: 5,349 2019 Total dwellings: 5,329 2018 Total dwellings: 5,310 2017 Total dwellings: 5,291 2016 Total dwellings: 5,265 2015 Total dwellings: 5,240 2014 Total dwellings: 5,220 2043 Total dwellings: 6,490 2042 Total dwellings: 6,425 2041 Total dwellings: 6,359 2040 Total dwellings: 6,293 2039 Total dwellings: 6,227 2038 Total dwellings: 6,160 2037 Total dwellings: 6,092 2036 Total dwellings: 6,026 2035 Total dwellings: 5,967 2034 Total dwellings: 5,909 2033 Total dwellings: 5,852 2032 Total dwellings: 5,797 2031 Total dwellings: 5,743 2030 Total dwellings: 5,697 2029 Total dwellings: 5,651 2028 Total dwellings: 5,609 2027 Total dwellings: 5,568 2026 Total dwellings: 5,540 2025 Total dwellings: 5,516 2024 Total dwellings: 5,493 2023 Total dwellings: 5,451 2022 Total dwellings: 5,418 2021 Total dwellings: 5,393 2020 Total dwellings: 5,349 2019 Total dwellings: 5,329 2018 Total dwellings: 5,310 2017 Total dwellings: 5,291 2016 Total dwellings: 5,265 2015 Total dwellings: 5,240 2014 Total dwellings: 5,220 2043 Forecast development: 65 2042 Forecast development: 66 2041 Forecast development: 66 2040 Forecast development: 66 2039 Forecast development: 67 2038 Forecast development: 68 2037 Forecast development: 66 2036 Forecast development: 59 2035 Forecast development: 58 2034 Forecast development: 57 2033 Forecast development: 55 2032 Forecast development: 54 2031 Forecast development: 46 2030 Forecast development: 46 2029 Forecast development: 42 2028 Forecast development: 41 2027 Forecast development: 28 2026 Forecast development: 24 2025 Forecast development: 23 2024 Forecast development: 42 2023 Forecast development: 33 2022 Forecast development: 25 2021 Forecast development: 44 2020 Forecast development: 20 2019 Forecast development: 19 2018 Forecast development: 19 2017 Forecast development: 26 2016 Forecast development: 25 2015 Forecast development: 20 2014 Forecast development: 32
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, July 2016.
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