Whanganui DistrictPopulation forecast
Skip to content

Whanganui District

Population and age structure

Between 2013 and 2028, the age structure category with the greatest increase in persons in Whanganui District is 'Seniors (70 to 84)'.

Knowledge of how the age structure of the population is changing is essential for planning age-based facilities and services, such as child care, recreation and aged care.

The forecast age groups of Whanganui District is a function of the current age of the population (people aging each year, being born and dying) as well as the age of people migrating into and out of the area. This in turn is driven by location (fringe, city centre, regional or rural) the existing housing stock (separate dwellings, medium or high density), the amount and type of new residential development (same as existing stock, or diversifying) and where the area is in a cycle of change. We call this the area’s residential role and function. You can learn more about this in the section household and suburb life cycles.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Whanganui District - Total persons201320282043Change between 2013 and 2043
Age group (years)Number%Number%Number%Number
Babies and pre-schoolers (0 to 4)2,9706.82,6256.02,6345.8-336
Primary schoolers (5 to 11)4,0269.33,9599.03,9688.8-57
Secondary schoolers (12 to 17)3,9129.03,4998.03,4267.6-485
Tertiary education and independence (18 to 24)3,3277.63,0857.03,1016.9-225
Young workforce (25 to 34)4,1519.54,2019.64,2629.4+112
Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)7,92518.27,31016.67,66616.9-260
Older workers and pre-retirees (50 to 59)6,23014.35,51412.55,54912.3-681
Empty nesters and retirees (60 to 69)5,10011.75,87813.45,58212.3+482
Seniors (70 to 84)4,69010.86,42114.67,17415.9+2,484
Elderly aged (85 and over)1,1702.71,4493.31,8674.1+697
Total persons43,500100.043,939100.045,230100.0+1,730

Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id , the population experts, May 2016.

Forecast age structure - Service age groups
Forecast age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2043: 1,867 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2043: 7,174 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2043: 5,582 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2043: 5,549 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2043: 7,666 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2043: 4,262 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2043: 3,101 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2043: 3,426 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2043: 3,968 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2043: 2,634 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028: 1,449 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2028: 6,421 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2028: 5,878 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2028: 5,514 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2028: 7,310 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2028: 4,201 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2028: 3,085 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2028: 3,499 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2028: 3,959 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028: 2,625 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013: 1,170 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2013: 4,690 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2013: 5,100 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2013: 6,230 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2013: 7,925 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2013: 4,151 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2013: 3,327 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2013: 3,912 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2013: 4,026 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013: 2,970
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups
Forecast change in age structure - Service age groups Forecast persons aged 85+,  2028 to 2043: 418 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2028 to 2043: 753 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2028 to 2043: -295 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2028 to 2043: 35 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2028 to 2043: 355 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2028 to 2043: 62 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2028 to 2043: 16 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2028 to 2043: -73 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2028 to 2043: 10 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2028 to 2043: 9 Forecast persons aged 85+,  2013 to 2028: 279 Forecast persons aged 70-84,  2013 to 2028: 1,731 Forecast persons aged 60-69,  2013 to 2028: 778 Forecast persons aged 50-59,  2013 to 2028: -716 Forecast persons aged 35-49,  2013 to 2028: -615 Forecast persons aged 25-34,  2013 to 2028: 50 Forecast persons aged 18-24,  2013 to 2028: -242 Forecast persons aged 12-17,  2013 to 2028: -413 Forecast persons aged 5-11,  2013 to 2028: -67 Forecast persons aged 0-4,  2013 to 2028: -345
Population and household forecasts, 2013 to 2043, prepared by .id the population experts, May 2016.

Key findings

In Whanganui District between 2013 and 2028, the number of persons aged under 17 is forecast to decrease by 825 (7.6%), and will comprise 22.9% of the total population.

The number of persons aged over 60 is expected to increase by 2,788 (25.4%) and comprise 31.3% of the total population.

The largest service age group in 2028 is 'Parents and homebuilders (35 to 49)', with a total of 7,310 persons.

v19.10.22-1.0.0